Now that our first wave of first-year keeper drafts have come and gone on FantasyBaseballMafia.com, some interesting patterns are starting to emerge–and there’s some useful information to learn if you’re fortunate enough to have a later Mafia draft.
Based on Average Draft Position of the drafts so far, here’s how the top ten rounds of the first-year Mafia keeper leagues are shaping up. The All Over the Map award goes to the highest standard deviation of each group of twelve.
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On March 19th 2007 we held our inaugural expert draft consisting of MLB employees and select fantasy web site writers. The format is that of a 12 team mixed 5×5 weekly transaction league. It has the following roster construction:
If I asked you the most important tool to go into your fantasy draft with, you would probably say some type of cheat sheet (the epitome of which is the official Mafia Top 420, but I digress). While there’s no doubt that a cheat sheet is helpful in crunch situations, I would counter that the single most important tool to walk into a draft with is a complete, coherent strategy, and that a cheat sheet without a strategy is just a piece of paper.
A complete strategy goes much deeper than typical clichés–it requires you to think through every round of your draft, considering what your priorities are early and what you’ll address late, what type of players you’ll target in late rounds, and what you’ll do when Plan A inevitably fails in almost every situation. In a draft where you know your position ahead of time (which, let’s be honest, should be the case for every serious league) your preparation should include walking through your entire draft and figuring out the ideal outcome.
There are various ADP (Average Draft Position) tools available for this analysis–and when you prepare, don’t ever plan on players slipping to you. Be prepared for the worst and then you may be pleasantly surprised when a target player slips to you. I’ve conducted my own one-man mock draft as an example, and in doing so I attempt to debunk the myth that drafting from the 7th position in a 12-team snake draft is the most difficult. I believe that a strong owner can draft a great team from any position with the right preparation.
In conducting my little draft, I used my own proprietary ADP research (which, darn it all, I happen to think is pretty good) with this rule: for each pick, I can only select players with an ADP either at my pick or higher. In other words, I’m prepared to reach for nearly all of my picks, and still demonstrate that a coherent strategy in the middle of a snake can produce an excellent roster. In doing so, I will also identify some of my favorite sleeper players this year.
This one-man mock assumes a 23-round 5×5 league with NFBC-style rosters (5 OF, 2 C, MI & CI).
OF - Carl Crawford r1, p7 (ADP 8.2)
Pujols, Reyes, A-Rod, Soriano, and Santana are locks to go before Crawford in almost all drafts. If someone’s letting Carlos Beltran slip to 7th than I’m lunging at my keyboard to take him; if not then Crawford and his projected 50+ steals and 20-homer potential on a loaded Devil Rays offense can play on my team any day. On a 5-OF roster an elite OF is a must in one of the first two rounds. If someone leaves either of these OFs on the board to take Chase Utley, make sure you don’t laugh so long that you forget to make your pick. If this seems unreasonable to you, I’ll tell you that I got Crawford with the 11th pick in a recent draft.
1B - Mark Teixeira r2, p18 (ADP 20.7)
Having addressed speed in a big way with Crawford, I turn to power in the second round. Even though 1B is considered a deep position, it’s still important to grab one of the 7 or 8 elites in the first three rounds. If Tex’s trend from the second half of ‘06 continues, we could easily be looking at 40 HR & 125 RBI with an average above .290 (which is the team BA you’ll need to win that stat). If I don’t get Tex or another power 1B here, I’m ready to pounce on Derrek Lee in the 3rd.
3B - Garrett Atkins r3, p31 (ADP 38.3)
This is an example of targeting a specific player and knowing where you can probably get him. Atkins is a four-category monster who turned 27 a month ago, and yet I’m confident he’ll slip to the mid-third round in most drafts. There’s enough smoke about Coors turning back into a serious hitter’s park that there has to be some sort of fire there, and Atkins led the majors in balls hit over 300 feet. You’ve got to think more of those are clearing the fence this year. And it all comes with an average that should top .310.
RP - Franciso Rodriguez, r4p42 (ADP 43.7)
It is definitely true that there will be saves on the waiver wire this year, and you can live that way if you’d like–just don’t act mystified when your ERA goes up 20 points in a month (thanks, Fausto). There’s no need to load up on arms in the early rounds, but I’m definitely aiming to get one of the big guns. The ERA & WHIP help from a dominant closer is always underrated and the K’s they bring will be the difference when the season is done. I’ll be looking for either K-Rod or Nathan in this round in every draft; barring that I’m looking for Ryan or Wagner in the 5th.
2B - Brian Roberts, r5p55 (ADP 56.9)
Normally when a position is touted as being highly scarce, I’m waiting until late rounds to find a sleeper rather than overpaying for a name. In this case, though, if Roberts is around in the fifth round as he has tended to be, there is tremendous value. I think most of the power projections I’ve seen for him are very low; he could definitely take a run at 20
homers, and is a lock to steal 25, probably more. If I can’t get Roberts here, I’m putting the brakes on the 2B position for at least another three rounds and letting someone else overpay for Cano and Uggla.
OF - Hideki Matsui, r6p66 (ADP 66.3)
Again, I follow a speed pick with a power pick. Matsui should definitely fall to the sixth round because of the fear that always surrounds a player coming off a serious injury. But before that injury, Matsui was one of the most durable players in the game and he immediately returned to form upon his return. He will probably hit fifth in an absurdly loaded lineup and thus will have the table set for another 100 RBI season.
SP - John Lackey, r7p79 (ADP 79.6)
Unless Santana or Oswalt slips much lower than they should, the seventh round is where you should at least start thinking about starting pitching depending on the tendencies of your league. There is a definite Super Seven tier of starters who will almost always be the first seven off the board. After that you’ll see a lot of people bypass Lackey for the sexier young strikeout pitchers like Sheets or Kazmir, and probably King Felix and Matsuzaka as well. I would definitely target Lackey above any of these. The only question about Lackey is how high his win total can be on a weak offensive club, but 15 wins is still probable and 180 K’s and a 3.6 ERA make him an exceptional value for a fantasy ace.
RP - Chad Cordero, r8p90 (ADP 96.2)
If there hasn’t been a ridiculous run on closers, the 7th or 8th round is a good place to grab another one who will help you in three or four categories. Cordero has proven that he is a mature and intelligent closer considering he’s only now turning 25–which will come in very handy when he’s traded to the Red Sox. Make no mistake, the Nationals situation is dire and hopeless and the farm system is as ugly as the big league options. The only way they’ll ever get things turned around is to sell off all valuable pieces for heaps of prospects, in hopes of being two or three years away from a Marlins-type youth movement. Cordero is one of those pieces and I have to think there’s less than a 20% chance he doesn’t end up on a winning team in short order with save opportunities aplenty, and that’s where his value will be.
C - Kenji Johjima, r9p103 (ADP 106.2)
If your league only plays one catcher, you shouldn’t even think about taking one until the mid-teens. In this case, with two backstops to fill I at least want one player that I know is capable of some power return. Johjima isn’t exactly young (he’ll turn 31 in June) but after his first major-league season he should continue to improve the power numbers. It’s safe to hope for 20 HR and 75 RBI with a BA that won’t hurt your team, and that’s about all you can ask for from a catcher at this point. My advice is to avoid the Big Three catchers at all costs unless McCann is somehow around in the 6th, because you’ll leave far superior stats on the field in order to address the mythical position scarcity.
OF - Rocco Baldelli, R10p114 (ADP 116.9)
If you play 5 OFs you don’t want to wait much longer than here to get your third. Baldelli is another name that comes up in trade rumors quite often with the loaded Rays team–but his value is unchanged regardless of where he goes because he is an excellent multi-category sleeper with 20-20-.300 potential, and that may be a conservative projection. Of course, the injury bug could bite again and then all bets are off, but especially in keeper leagues Baldelli shouldn’t slip much farther than here. If he puts it together for a full-season his draft value could skyrocket in future years.
SP - Curt Schilling, r11p127 (ADP 129.0)
I’m looking for my second starter by round 11 or 12. Schilling is a pitcher with something to prove, heading into a contract season and making it clear he intends to pitch past this year. The age (40) is always a scary factor, but Schilling pitches for a team that will win 90 games and continues to post incredible strikeout-to-walk ratios. Someone in your league will pounce on Matsuzaka; I honestly would rather have Schilling anyway this year, and five rounds later to boot.
CI - Adrian Gonzalez, r12p138 (ADP 145.1)
At this point I’m drafting offense, and here we have another bat that fits the mold well–entering his prime (Gonzalez turns 25 in May) having already shown plate discipline and a strong BA (.304 in 2006). Gonzalez won’t steal a single base but the power he brings at the CI slot in this round makes it well worth it.
SP - Chris Capuano, r13p151 (ADP 158.6)
I’m not always crazy about taking my third starter this early in the draft, but Capuano’s potential is too high to pass up entering his third full season in the majors. The Brewers very well may win 86 or 87 games this year, so you can expect the 11 wins to improve and the ERA to dip below 3.90 after seasons of 3.99 and 4.03. And if he only matches the 175 K’s of 2006, you’ll be ecstatic you grabbed him this late.
SS - Orlando Cabrera, r14p162 (ADP 174.2)
This is a very important lesson: obviously I start to notice in round 10 or so that I haven’t picked up a SS yet. If I haven’t fully prepared, then I may get nervous and abandon my strategy to reach for someone many rounds higher than they should go. After all the elite SS are off the board, this is a totally fair round for Cabrera who should have no problem stealing 20 bases with 80-90 runs. There may be a drag on the average here, but I can afford that risk because I’ve taken so many high-average players already. The bottom line is, don’t panic if you have a position still unfilled at this point–the worst thing you can do is to reach. Remember how late a SS like Carlos Guillen fell in 2006 drafts.
OF - Willy Taveras, r15p175 (ADP 186.6)
Continuing the theme of the last round, I’ve got a chance to really solidify my speed here and if I have to take some hit in BA, I’ve already mitigated that in early rounds. Taveras should run all over the field this year; projections of 40 steals are not out of the question. After you make this pick you can safely laugh at the owner who took Juan Pierre ten rounds earlier.
RP - Jose Valverde, r16p186 (ADP 199.0)
The 15th or 16th round is a good place to grab your third closer in a normal 12-team league (and I’m always looking to draft three). You’re not going to find someone with dominant WHIP/ERA so the least you can do here is pick up someone who will strike guys out. If your league goes nuts for closers and Dotel and Torres are already gone by the end of the 13th, don’t bother drafting a terrible third closer–just draft a couple solid middle relievers and win ERA instead of saves.
OF - Carlos Quentin, r17p199 (ADP 212.2)
I’m very happy to fill my final OF spot this early in the draft, and since it’s already speed-heavy with Crawford, Baldelli, and Taveras I’m going to use the last spot for a power sleeper. Quentin should be pounced on earlier than this in deep keeper leagues, but 20 HR from your 5th OF is something to smile about. If you do play 5 OF’s it is imperative to pay attention to how fast other owners are filling those spots; it gets ugly at the end of the OF list.
SP - Chuck James, r18p210 (ADP 212.4)
There should still be a wealth of good-to-great starters on the board at this point and here’s one of my favorites. The value of all Braves starters increases this year from 2006 performances because their bullpen is so much stronger (okay, all starters except Mike Hampton). James won 11 games last year in only about 60% of a season in the rotation. Don’t say I didn’t tell you so when James challenges Smoltz for the team lead in wins.
C - Johnny Estrada, r19p223 (ADP 234.1)
The strategy here is to fill the second catcher spot as late as possible, but not wait so long that I end up having to take a prospect or someone with no real hope of contributing. Estrada is not good for a whole lot of power and he’s probably the slowest runner in the majors. But at least he contributes positively to the average which is more than you can say for 80% of catchers, and he will give you 10-15 HRs over the course of a full year. Still, it is essential to not get caught in a late closer run; just let it go by you and turn your focus elsewhere until the dust has settled.
RP - Jonathan Broxton, r20p234 (ADP 242.6)
Along with drafting three closers, I always look to draft a high-strikeout middle reliever with closer potential. Takashi Saito will turn 37 this year and Broxton’s stuff is so awesome and the buzz is growing around him so quickly, he stands a great chance to get the job upon Saito’s first misstep. Broxton is basically the same as Joel Zumaya with slightly better control and probably three rounds later. Even if he never gets the job this year he’ll still give you more K’s and WHIP help–if he does get the job, imagine having four strikeout-heavy closers in a 12-team league.
SP - Mark Buehrle, r21p247 (ADP 249.2)
I would definitely not recommend drafting more than five starters in the first 20 rounds, and here I’ve waited until Round 21 to grab the fifth. Because I’ve taken a couple younger “sleeper” arms in Capuano and James, I’ll look for some more experience and a proven track record here. Buehrle could be a good value pick this late–remember that he’s in a contract year knowing there’s a very small chance the Sox will bring him back, so he’s playing for money on a team that should again win a lot of games. Most Sox analysts will tell you they’d be shocked if he doesn’t dramatically improve from last year.
MI - Troy T. Tulowitzki, r22p258 (ADP 269.3)
It’s absolutely okay to wait this long to fill your final offense spot, because MI is usually not going to be worth much unless you grab two top SS in the early rounds. When I draft offense in the late rounds I’m always looking for young sleepers and I love T3 this year. The Rockies SS job is already his barring an unforseen injury and he is already showing continued improvement in plate discipline and ability to flat out hit the ball and get on base.
SP - John Maine, r23p271 (ADP 273.4)
You can use your final pick for another young offensive sleeper if you so desire, but I always like to take a pitcher like Liriano or Verlander in 2006–a sleeper starter who slips toward the end that could easily put up great numbers. If nothing else, a halfway decent Mets pitcher will win 15 games and Maine should certainly be a lot better than the 5.08 ERA of 16-game winner Steve Trachsel. Make sure your strategy is executed all the way through the end of the draft. I love it when fellow owners waste their final one or two picks on humorous “deep sleepers” or worthless prospects from their home team. You never know how much your final picks could contribute. At the risk of repeating myself–remember where Justin Verlander went last year.
Admittedly most leagues with NFBC-style rosters will have deeper drafts than this–you’ll notice I didn’t even draft a Utility player. But I think I put together a very strong, balanced team in all areas by staying true to my strategy (mix pitching experience with youth, be aggressive drafting OFs, pay attention to speed/power balance, draft good BA early so you can take more risks later, etc.) and knowing when I was going to look to address certain needs. And I did it from what is supposedly the hardest position to draft from–the center of the snake. The moral of the story is that your draft position doesn’t matter nearly as much as your ability to put your strategy into motion and execute it to completion.
And if none of that works, at least make sure the Mafia Top 420 is within reach!
Comments can be made to Evan@FantasyBaseballMafia.com
OK. I’ll admit it. I’m addicted. I must be. It’s the only reasonable explanation. I must be addicted to pitching. And I know I’m not alone. The evidence? How about Barry Zito for seven years at $126 million? A four-year, $40 million contract for Ted Lilly? Five years, and $55 million, in a deal for Gil Meche? Jason Marquis for $20 million? Adam Eaton for $24 million? Should I go on? I may be addicted, but, clearly, I’m not the only one in need of a support session at Pitchers Anonymous.
Anxious? Excited? Restless?
Please.
Fantasy baseball buffs passed the anxious, excited, restless state somewhere in between Britney Spears flashing us and buzzing her head. If those are the only words you can use to describe your pain; get in line, rookie. Us vets, we’ve graduated to flat out straight-jacket status now.
The only March Madness we know of is trying to sort out all of the leagues we’ve carelessly signed up for, just for the sake of filling our intense fix by taking part in meaningless mock drafts (let’s face it, you are ambitious now but there is no way you are keeping track of 8 Yahoo! teams).
But fear not, its coming!
By Darryl Houston Smith
2006 finish: 88-74, 2nd place in NL West by tie-breaker behind San Diego Padres; Lost division series to the New York Mets.
Manager: Grady Little (2nd year with Dodgers: 88-74; Overall: 276-210)
Notable Arrivals: RHP Jason Schmidt, CF Juan Pierre, LF Luis Gonzalez, LHP Randy Wolf, C Mike Lieberthal, RHP Rudy Seanez, RHP Chin-Hui Tsao. Dodger owner Frank McCourt put his money on the line this winter in an all out effort to bring a championship back to LA and should be commended for his boldness. He spent $109.5 Million for Pierre, Schmidt and Nomar alone.