As I sit here today and reflect on my teams, one thought keeps going through my head: “Slow down, it’s April!” I have to remind myself that daily, if not hourly. It’s easy to get nervous three weeks into the season–is my guy hurt, can I wait on my player to warm up, can I pass up this diamond in the rough on the waiver wire, etc. Maneuvering this minefield is what separates the so-called men from the boys.
They say a league can be won or lost from your draft, and I’m not here to dispute that–in fact I agree wholeheartedly, and that’s why I’m telling you not to compound a poor draft by making moves you will regret down the road. You need to give players time to produce, but at the same time if you see an opportunity, then make an informed decision and never give up trying to improve your team. It’s only April! We have four more months of baseball and statistics left to accumulate, plenty of time to win (or lose) a league.
Fantasy baseball is a game of strategies and I hope that by now if you haven’t had one all along, you are actively trying to prepare a strategy to win your league. I will discuss 3 things that should be done in April by anyone who plays the game to W.I.N.:
W. (Watch or Work) the waiver wire
I. Initiate trades
N Never give up
The first thing I do in April is get to know my team. The draft is over, we have a few starts under our belt and it’s time to really get into the numbers of your players. It’s time to look at your team position by position and evaluate what is working and what may be a potential problem. Make projections of your mix of players and decide if your “mix” will make the grade or come up short.
If you identify a potential shortfall in a category, the (W) waiver wire is a great place to find diamonds in the rough, especially early. Unless you’re in a deep mixed league there should be quality guys on the waiver wire, some unproven, some forgotten, and some simply overlooked. As a responsible fantasy owner you should watch the wire diligently for those “April showers” (the shower of players that hit the wire in April). The moves you make in April have more effect on the final placement of your team than any other factor after the draft. The players you drop will have less time to affect your team and those you acquire will have more time to help your team. Just keep in mind that there’s plenty of time; that pitcher you’re dropping may get it together, and that hitter may find his swing. Don’t make matters worse by dropping a player too soon and giving your opponent those home runs or wins.
We play a game that’s based on stats; use them to your advantage. You need to know your team’s strengths and weaknesses–and maybe more importantly, those of your opponents. When you have identified a weakness in your team and you just don’t see a viable option on the waiver wire, it’s time for ( I ) Initiate a trade.
Knowledge is power and if you know more than your opponent you should fare well in the high stakes world of trade negotiations! One thing I like to do is talk; I guess it’s the salesman in me. I love the art of closing the deal! Sounds like another article, but for now let me just say trading is nothing more than knowing more than your opponent. April is a great time to scare other owners. A few home runs, or a few points on batting average can swing a team from 10th to 2nd in a day, and when you’re sitting with 36 points and the leader has 142 it’s easy to get nervous and make a bad trade. It’s your job to lay the groundwork to makes that owner nervous.
Most leagues have a message board; this is a great place to talk about players. Not everyone has time to watch baseball games all day and check splits and just like the “force” in Star Wars, your Jedi mind tricks will work on the simple-minded. I love to talk about how well my players are doing; I want people paying top dollar for my players. When one of my players is hot and playing over his head and I feel it’s time to sell high, I let people know all about my player. You’re making a sale, so why not talk up your product. Simple sales techniques work fine, like “Feature Benefit”—i.e. Johan Santana’s most obvious feature or attraction for leagues counting strikeouts is just that, the K. The benefit: Johan Santana can single-handedly make up 100 strikeouts by the end of the season over a typical pitcher. And in a 12 team league, 100 K’s could be easily be 5 points or more.
I also want owners paying top dollar for players I am not after in trade–simply put, if they are over-paying in another trade that doesn’t involve me, they are more than likely weakening their team overall. Drive down the value of those players not off to a good start in April and see if you can’t make that owner nervous. When they ask you why you want them, you don’t need to say that it’s because you believe in career averages, or don’t believe in a sophomore slump; simply tell them that you have the depth or space on your roster to take the gamble. Some owners don’t like it but if your opponent’s player being shopped has flaws, expose them. Why should you make it easy for that mean old owner ahead of you in the standings while he tries to shop a lemon on your friends and co-participants in the league? Why, I just couldn’t sleep at night if I didn’t remind them of his recurring back problem or that the hitter has a 30 point higher BA pre All-Star Game than post.
The last thing to remember in April is to ( N ) Never give up–it’s only April. So Hideki Matsui is out for awhile and Carpenter is too, you missed the live draft and got stuck with three shortstops—well, you’re just going to have to work a little harder this year! You need to work the wire for a replacement and think about trading! If you’re lucky, you can trade two good players for one great player, or maybe one of your mediocre closers and a bench or DL player can get you a closer upgrade.
You need to maximize your roster daily and remember that unlike offensive categories that can only be made up by double headers or plugging in players when others have off days, pitching stats are about maximizing every inning. For those of you in a league that has an innings pitched maximum, wouldn’t we all like our pitchers to go as few innings as possible while accumulating the most K’s and the lowest ERA and WHIP? There are only so many wins and saves available, but having said that it’s still easier to make up pitching stats than it is to make up hitting stats. Remember the importance of the strikeout rate. Using the strikeout rate, you can make up plenty of ground—ah, but now we are getting ahead of ourselves. Slow down, it’s only April!
The Godfather
4/14/2007
Comments can be sent to the Godfather@FantasyBaseballMafia.com