List of 12 History:
The List of 12 is a list of pitchers that MLB.com’s Corey Schwartz nominates for breakout seasons before each season using a secret calculated formula. The theory of the List of 12 is that once pitchers reach a certain level of experience, usually around 500 innings pitched, they tend to improve significantly. The 2006 list included Brandon Webb, Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo.
However, when judging the List of 12, a fantasy player must use some subjectivity as the system that Schwartz uses does not always provide useful pitchers. A fantasy player can easily distinguish which pitchers in the List of 12 will be successful with a little research and mostly common sense.
For the 2007 List of 12, the formula only produced 11 names, however, Schwartz subjectively added Erik Bedard because he symbolizes what the List of 12 represents. Schwartz mentioned during the release of the 2007 List of 12 that Dan Haren would be the star of the 2007 List of 12, following in the footsteps of Brandon Webb (2006), John Lackey (2005) and Ben Sheets (2004).
Source: Wikipedia
The 2007 Pitchers:
- Erik Bedard
- Chris Capuano
- Jose Contreras
- Aaron Cook
- Dan Haren
- Cliff Lee
- Horacio Ramirez
- Nate Robertson
- Victor Santos
- Jae Seo
- Jorge Sosa
- Claudio Vargas
The Breakouts:
Dan Haren
As Schwartz correctly forecasted the star of the list of 12 has been Dan Haren. The past two years he has been very durable and effective starter winning 28 out of 68 starts since coming over from the St. Louis Cardinals as part of the Mark Mulder trade in 2004.
Although Haren’s natural ability has hardly been a secret, his success this year has been nothing short of astonishing. The main knock on Haren coming into this season was his propensity for giving up the long ball. His success this year has largely been due to his reduction of gopher balls
(-35% vs. Career Avg.). In fact, his stats show that it’s not just home runs he’s been selfish at giving up but hits of any kind, cutting the batting average against him from .262 to .202 so far.
Before you spend hours dreaming up the trade to get him on your team, I must caution that his ground ball/fly ball outs ratio has also seen a dramatic decrease this year (-28% vs. Career Avg.). Haren has been trending down each of the past three seasons gradually giving up more and more fly balls. It is unlikely that Haren will be able to sustain his reduction in gopher balls while giving up more and more fly balls but as long as he can he will remain an above-average pitcher. Such trending indicates a fair bit of luck and luck always seems to even out during the course of a season or, for that matter, a career. Look for him to come back to earth a bit in the second half. Could he win 20 games? Not likely, a final line of 15-16 wins is more in line with his career profile.
Erik Bedard
Erik Bedard was one of the bright young arms of the American League. Bedard, now 28 years old, has battled a number of injuries during the course of his career. Finally healthy, he is taking his game to the next level. His ERA is ¾ of a run better than his career numbers and his strikeouts are up to 10.9 per nine innings. Unfortunately, Bedard labors for the lowly Baltimore Orioles so his win/loss record will not be a true indicator of his value. However, as long as he remains healthy look for Bedard to continue to be among the Major League strikeout leaders. I think he will end up around 240-250 K’s which puts him right up there with the likes of Santana, Peavy, Hamels and Sabathia.
The Injured:
Unfortunately, injuries can play a large role in a pitchers ability to get the job done. Every year scores of professional pitchers get injured and are never able to reach their full potential. This year is no different. The following list of 12 pitchers have missed considerable time already and are thus unlikely to be of great value to your fantasy league team this or any season. Pitchers such as Horacio “shoulder” Ramirez (4-2 and 6.47 ERA), Cliff “strained right abdominal muscle” Lee (5-4 and 4.90 ERA), Nate “tired arm” Robertson (4-6 and 4.82 ERA), Chris “groin” Capuano (5-5 and 4.35 ERA) and Jorge “hamstring” Sosa (7-3 and 3.92 ERA) have seen their progress curtailed in 2007 due to injuries. They remain waiver wire pickups or single league fliers at best.
A further note on Jorge Sosa — it’s a shame he got hurt. He was having his best year since 2005 (when he went 13-5 with the Atlanta Braves) and it looked like his was returning to form after a lost 2006 (he went 3-11 last year). No one knows which version of Sosa will return in the second half of 2007.
The Average:
Not that long ago, Jose Contreras was the major’s most dominant pitcher not named Johan Santana (see second half of 2005 and first half of 2006). This is when he won 17 straight decisions and a World Series for the White Sox. Unfortunately, he still has not recovered that form after multiple injuries in 2006 and remains a shadow of that pitcher. His current line of 5-9 and 4.89 ERA is the very definition of average. Claudio Vargas is a mediocre starter despite a very misleading 6-1 record. He remains a disaster waiting to happen (NL hitters are hitting .275 ERA against him and his WHIP is an unholy 1.51),
The Bad:
Until Aaron Cook (4-5 and 4.70 ERA including a 6.43 ERA at home) can sort out pitching at Coors, he is not going help anyone. The Reds told Victor Santos to take his 1-3 self outtahere and designated him for assignment on June 29th. On June 11th, the terrible Jae Seo was demoted to AAA after going 3-4 and 8.13 ERA for Tampa Bay.
Summary:
If you were lucky enough to pick up Haren, Bedard or Sosa, my congratulations. You are likely high standing in your league’s pitching categories. But for those of you who got stuck with any of the rest of the 12, I feel sorry for your ERA’s and WHIP’s. That having been said, the list of 12 remains one of the must-read lists in fantasy baseball and adds a great deal of insight — along with an equal dose of controversy — to the ongoing search for that most elusive of all baseball enigmas, finding this year’s breakout pitcher.
Darryl Houston Smith