Greetings, fellow Mafia members! Short and sweet this week.
Batting average is a funny thing. In the Mafia (5X5) format, it represents only 20% of the value we get from an offensive player, yet we, generally, hold it in high enough regard that we’ll let a low batting average color our overall perception of a player.
Let me ask you this … if I offered you a second baseman, call him ‘Player X’, with a .299 BA and 28 HRs, could you refuse? Of course, you wouldn’t. On top of that, what if I told you that you could have him for a “bargain basement” price?
Where is this ‘gem’? Well, let me tell you, at a rock bottom ‘price’, he isn’t Chase Utley. Of course, Utley, the guy that countless fantasy GMs knocked themselves out to draft in the 1st round this year, has “averaged”, roughly, 25 HRs per season over the last three campaigns while boasting a .300 BA. He’s a 28 year old stud.
But what’s the real difference between Utley and ‘Player X’, who happens to be 27 year old Dan Uggla? About thirty hits, that’s what. Now, I know that sounds like a lot, but, to this point in the season, which equates to just three extra hits every two weeks. Does the fact that this COULD happen jump Uggla up into the 1st round? Of course not. There’s just little likelihood that he can lift himself up to a .300 BA. However, is it possible that he’s capable of much more than his current .250 BA? Can he, at least, bring himself up to, maybe, .275? Less than one more hit per week, on average, and he reaches .275, or higher, with ease. He’s on the keeper list borderline right now, but would those few extra hits merit him some really serious consideration?
This one is driving me crazy. How does an outfielder with 30-30 tools not merit strong keeper consideration? He just has to hit below .240, I guess. Yet, Chris B. Young sits no more than on the fringe of most prospective keeper lists. Let’s imagine that Young is hitting .280 with 29 HRs and 24 SBs right now. Could that land him in 5th round, or higher, territory? It wouldn’t take much for him to get there. He’d merely have to have knocked out just one extra hit per week this season. Carlos Beltran is hitting .280. He has, also, racked up, a very similar, 28 HRs and 20 SBs. He was a low 1st round or high 2nd round draftee this year. Isn’t he likely to be grabbed just about as quickly next season? And Chris B. Young isn’t worth at least 5th round value? I don’t get it.
So, what’s my point? Honestly, it’s nothing more than to highlight just how small the difference between a 1st rounder and a borderline player CAN be. Keep that in mind when you’re putting together your 2008 keeper lists!








