By Darryl Houston Smith

League 10

After witnessing the shocking collapse of Mike Mussina, the front office’s failure to land Johan Santana, and the Mitchell-report-fueled implosion of Roger Clemens, the Yankees will open the season with their staff clearly in transition.

Fortunately for the Bombers, they have a talented young trio that they can call on to fill those mighty big shoes.  The best of the bunch is flamethrower Joba Chamberlain whom the Yankees will be moving into Clemens’ old spot.  Look for Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to take the remaining two spots if Mussina is unable to resuscitate his rapidly fading career.

I asked Baseball America’s John Manuel what he thought about Chamberlain joining the rotation.

Darryl Houston Smith:  Do you think Joba can handle the role as the Yankee #3 starter over the course of the long season? Do you like his upside better than Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes?

John Manuel:  Hard to imagine him getting to 200 IP this year considering he’s never thrown 120 in a pro season; just very hard to know how he’ll perform when stretched out. Of course I like his upside better than Kennedy’s, I’ve ranked him higher 2 years in a row, and yes, I think his upside is better than that of Hughes. It wouldn’t shock me if Hughes had more big league impact in 2008 though.

A quick follow-up question asked if it was premature to think that Chamberlain had surpassed Hughes.  His answer was as direct and to the point as could be.

John Manuel:  No, it’s not premature. Joba’s best is better than Hughes’ best. Joba didn’t hold that kind of velo or two plus breaking balls or show an average changeup in college, he’s gotten better with the mechanical tweaks Nardi Contreras & the Yankees have brought to him. Give Joba the credit; he’s basically got Hughes’ command (Hughes’ greatest strength) with a much better fastball and similar, if not better, breaking stuff. I can’t really say enough about Joba. I ranked him No. 1 on my personal top 50 prospects list in the Handbook, put it that way.

I think this trio of hurlers will provide a lot of excitement in 2008 for Mafia fantasy leaguers.  But can they really provide good value?  That might be another story.  Using the GVA (good value approach), let’s see how this trio fairs.  GVA is my own method of drafting.  It’s a drafting system that prefers value over risk and has its roots in the business teachings of Warren Buffet in the world of investing and Ron Shandler’s teachings in the field of baseball analysis.

Let’s start with Joba Chamberlain, who I also feel is going to be the best of the group.  Last year, as Mariano Rivera’s set-up man, Joba was a beast — for 24 innings he was as dominant as anyone in the bigs.  If he simply returned to the same role he would have been that rare middle reliever who you would draft because he could help you with your ratios and K’s.  Moving into a prominent starting role (as high as third in the rotation) means that, in addition to good ratios and K’s, he could be expected to give you about 12 wins.  In mock drafts this week, Joba is being drafted on average at #142.  The names of six starting pitchers in roughly the same range (#135-149) are AJ Burnett, Yovani Gallardo, Francisco Liriano, Chien-ming Wang, John Maine, and Jeff Francis.  This is a high-skill set group of pitchers who carry along with them a moderate amount of risk.  When you look at the GVA of these pitchers, three names should stand out: Wang, Maine, and Francis. These are the three most likely, of this bunch, to return 15-17 wins and eat up about 200 innings.  Joba is going to be good and he belongs among this group, but don’t over pay to get him.  Don’t chase those 12 wins.

Next up is Phil Hughes.  Phil was having a fine rookie season until an unfortunate series of injuries waylaid him.  He regained his full health at the end of 2007 and closed strong.  If he has a full healthy season, with his skill set and age (21), as well as a starting role on what remains a strong Yankee team, you could expect a similar performance to Joba’s — good ratio’s, K’s and about 12 wins.  In mocks this week, Phil is being drafted at #166.  His peers in this range (159-173) include Jered Weaver, Jeremy Bonderman, Tim Hudson, Chad Billingsley, Ian Snell, and Adam Wainwright.  Once again, this is another high-skill set group of pitchers who carry along with them a moderate amount of risk.  The standouts, however, are Hudson, Snell, and Wainwright.  These are the three most likely to return 13-15 wins and pitch around 200 innings.  Phil is going to be good and clearly belongs among this group, but don’t over pay to get him either.

Ian Kennedy is another matter.  A good prospect, Ian is just not as gifted as either Joba or Phil, and his ceiling is lower.  In mocks, he has been going as high as #167 and as low as not being drafted at all.  His average is #251.  By all means, draft him, but don’t over reach and put him in either Joba’s or Phil’s groups — he does not belong there.  Look for Ian to return about 9 wins when he eventually secures a full time starter’s job.  The upside of this is a simple comparison to the talented but fragile James Richard Harden.  The most games he has ever won in the bigs was 11 … and that was four seasons ago.

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball Mafia is pleased to welcome Darryl Houston Smith to our writing team.  Darryl joins our staff as Staff Columnist and, in his role, will provide regular content to the website.  –Bob in Cleveland, Senior Editor