By Tim Collins

League 14

My goal, before starting this process, was to come up with a quick and easy way to set draft day goals for all categories in a rotisserie league. We use many different formats, and if you can find the data, this process works for them all.

I had no data for NFBC-style leagues (two catchers, MI/CI, five OFs), so I used the data that I did have access to and have mapped out the process I used. The numbers I’m using are for a 12-team league that uses the “standard” lineup style with one player for each position (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS), three OFs, and a UT spot. BUT, if you are in a 16-team, NL-only league, for example, this process should work as well.

I am working on a more sophisticated method to predict my goals for each category, in a variety of different formats, but considering that the majority of folks have neither the time nor the energy to develop and maintain a comprehensive baseball statistics database, I looked for a quick and dirty method to help. Also, although the specific categories I used in my Roto-style leagues will not apply directly to Mafia-style formats, the methods I used to make my predictions do, and that is what is important.

What I did: I played in two Rotisserie leagues last year – a 12 team NL-only and a 12 team AL-only. This was not NFBC-style play but rather, as already mentioned, the “default” daily lineup that included three outfielders and one starter for every other position. This is a key factor because with five extra hitters the category totals turn out differently. We used the standard, 5×5, categories (AVG, R, RBI, HR, SB – ERA, WHIP, K, SV, W).

I entered the totals of each team in each category into a spreadsheet. I omitted the team names but kept each team’s end of season ranking because this was important. After this step, I calculated the average for every category. I then plugged in a “13th team” whose stat totals were those same averages and calculated the total points that this team would have scored in each of the two leagues. In both the NL and the AL-only leagues, by simply meeting the average, I would have scored about 60 points. This would have been good enough to finish in the middle of both packs — not acceptable.

I then recorded the winning score in each category (keeping in mind that the “best” ERA and WHIP is actually the smallest number). I took the average point total from my first step and averaged that with the category winning totals. The theory being that you can win your league by finishing in the upper third in each category … in other words, without actually winning any category.

My result here was much better. My “13th team” scored a little over 90 points in each of the leagues … which, considering the roughness of my calculations, seemed good enough for a baseline. The numbers (click on thumbnail below) that I arrived at seemed very reasonable:

Preliminary Conclusions:

In general, there is not a huge difference between the NL and the AL. Despite the very common belief that the AL produces more offense than does the NL, the talent is spread thinner in a 12 team AL-only league because the AL has only 14 teams … as opposed to the NL which offers 16 teams from which to choose players.

The result was that, excepting two categories, the numbers were extremely close. In both HR and SB, however, the NL-only Roto league had significantly higher totals. This could be a function of the deeper talent pool or of the NL being top heavy in power (e.g., Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, etc.).

Just for fun, I took the top six finishers in my NL-only league, combined them with the top six finishers in my AL-only league, and performed the same method of calculating totals. Again, it’s a rough calculation, but my theory here was that in a 12-team, mixed, league, the talent pool would be twice as deep so the stats should be greater. Here are the results of that test:

Conclusions:

Given a larger player base from which to choose, it is unsurprising that these totals are higher than the NL and AL-only league totals. The one number of which I am skeptical right away is the .290 batting average which seems a bit high.

Next Steps:

I would love to see how closely I can get to these totals given the current average draft positions of players in the specified formats. The draft, of course, is only one step in the process as we rarely finish the season with the team that we drafted.

The bottom line is that, regardless of the method you use, a necessary step is to set a goal you would like to reach in each category your league uses … and then draft to meet those goals.

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball Mafia is pleased to welcome Tim Collins to our writing team. Tim joins our staff as Staff Columnist, and, in his role, will provide periodic content to the website. –Bob in Cleveland, Senior Editor