By Tim Collins
A week ago, I mapped out a strategy for setting draft day goals for each Rotisserie League category. At the time, I used a specific procedure and reported my findings. Since then, I’ve analyzed the final statistics for last year’s Mafia leagues and established baseline goals using that original method. For details on the process I used, please refer to my earlier article. In the meantime, for Mafia-style leagues, I came up with the following goals:
Some thoughts?
What stands out to me is that it looks like you need about half as many stolen bases as home runs, so using this strategy it suggests that it might be smart to target power early and get cheap speed later on. It may be tempting to get Jose Reyes or Carl Crawford early and consider yourself almost there, but speed is very streaky. We saw last year that two players, who should have been big speed sources, Alfonso Soriano and BJ Upton, were significantly slowed. Soriano was mandated by his team to slow down his running game, and BJ Upton had leg issues that forced him to steal less often.
The other stat that strikes me is 114 saves. This implies that, to be competitive in saves, you need three closers. However, in a 12 team league, getting two closers is nice … and nabbing three is an absolute luxury. The bottom line with saves is to keep your finger on the pulse of every closer in the game. It is not a stretch or a secret that the closer’s role has the highest in-season turnover rate, so there is potential for high value.
For example, the following players were not closers on draft day last year and were mere waiver wire pickups in 2007: Joakim Soria (17 saves), Kevin Gregg (32), Jeremy Accardo (30), Al Reyes (26), Manny Corpas (19), Matt Capps (18), Brad Hennessey (18), Alan Embree (17), CJ Wilson (12), and Dan Wheeler (11).
That’s nine teams and 200 saves for nothing! Of course, chasing saves can be dangerous and you can end up with Brad Lidge, Jason Frasor or Dan Wheeler, who was a bit of an adventure in 2007.
So, while many people in your league assumed that they were smarter than you when they overpayed for Joel Zumaya (1 save) and Jonathan Broxton (2 saves), they were probably left in the dust. Middle relievers can get the occasional save, and typically will help your ERA and WHIP, but be careful speculating on closers. I challenge you to find an “expert” who told you that Brett Myers would get more saves than Tom Gordon in 2007. Keep in mind that last year, I was the owner who thought I was smarter than you, and targeted both Zumaya and Broxton in a lot of leagues … but I’ve seen the light!