By Bob in Cleveland
League 4
“Outlaws United BC”
Greetings, fellow Mafia members … and welcome to the 2008 fantasy baseball season!
One of the most beautiful things about playing fantasy baseball is the sudden appearance of a Winter avalanche of player projections. Like poorly timed Cleveland snowstorms, you wake up buried under everyone’s “expert” opinion. Let’s face it. When most of us “go out and buy a book or a magazine”, quoting our esteemed Wire Tap colleagues, we find out that our choices are unlimited. In the end, though, as you gear up for the 2008 season, you’ll undoubtedly be assaulted by dozens of projections. My advanced apologies for adding to the overload, but I find myself compelled to add my two cents to the mix.
Several months ago, I had the opportunity to participate in the construction of The Wire Tap Top 60. This exercise forced me to do something I had never done before … make my own predictions. Like most of us, I usually go out and buy one of those proverbial ‘books’, but, thanks to The Wire Tap, for the first time I took a shot at making my own projections.
Oddly, however, I didn’t start out with the intention of ranking players. I was just cranking out predictions, but as we got deeper into the project, I found myself curious to see how well my projections would translate into rankings. To do this, I consulted our friends at MLB.com whose Fantasy Comparison “… formulas were designed to approximate a player’s relative fantasy value compared to all other players …” Check them out. A link can be found at the bottom right corner of any player file page on MLB.com. Anyway, this seemed to be a pretty objective way to turn my projections into rankings.
Before I move on, I’d like to make one final point. With every “expert” opinion, there comes a heap of controversy. My rankings will be no different. Well. I’m ready for the ridicule, so let’s take a look at The Outlaw’s Top 5.
1. Alex Rodriguez
You were expecting someone else? In 2007, he walked and made contact at rates, more or less, consistent with previous years, but, within that, he reversed a slight, overall, four year decline in making contact. His BB/K rate was at its highest in six years. In fact, his BB/K rate and his core power markers both surged pretty dramatically in 2007. Could he actually be BETTER(!!!) next year??
2008 Projection: 600 ABs, .307 BA, 129 Runs, 52 HRs, 137 RBIs, 20 SBs
2. Jimmy Rollins
716 ABs last season?! Are you kidding me? How often does that happen? His power and speed markers were at six year highs, and it paid off as he won the NL MVP. Rollins, and the next two players on this list, can be ranked in any order in my opinion, but since he IS the reigning MVP, and since I truly think he’s got a little bit more “growth” in him, I’m pushing him to the top of my “trinity”.
2008 Projection: 675 ABs, .292 BA, 129 Runs, 32 HRs, 100 RBIs, 41 SBs
3. Jose Reyes
The alleged requirement that Reyes needs to reach the 20 HR mark in order to be considered an elite player is utter nonsense. Where else are you going to find 70+ SBs from one player? How often does that type of player hit Major League Baseball? Further, the last time I looked, we are trying to build fantasy baseball TEAMS. In building those TEAMS, we need to acquire SBs. Who better than Reyes to fill that part of the puzzle? I’ll nab Reyes, if I can, and, when it gets down to the end of the draft, I’ll let everyone else scramble for what few steals are left. I’ll take my chances hunting for power. It’s easier to find.
As for the player, Reyes’ walk rates over the last four years: 2%, 4%, 8%, 10% (2007). His BB/K rates over the same timeframe: .16, .35, .65, .99 (2007). Great signals for future BA growth. Take this to the bank: “His second half BA was a fluke. Expect a similar, or better, year in 2008.”
2008 Projection: 675 ABs, .298 BA, 113 Runs, 13 HRs, 65 RBIs, 73 SBs
4. Hanley Ramirez
The “3 R’s” are complete! Massive jumps in BB/K rate, making contact, and power. Oddly, regardless of the SBs, he experienced a notable drop in core speed. Off-season shoulder surgery only has me slightly concerned, but it is enough for me to drop him to the bottom of the “trinity”.
2008 Projection: 625 ABs, .317 BA, 122 Runs, 26 HRs, 73 RBIs, 48 SBs
5. David Wright
I’m going to bet on just a little more power but a bit less speed. David Wright might very well be the most solid guy in MLB. I rate him as a very strong NL MVP candidate for 2008.
2008 Projection: 600 ABs, .313 BA, 109 Runs, 34 HRs, 115 RBIs, 27 SBs
How about that? Only five guys, and we already have two third basemen, three shortstops, two Mets, and four NL East players. Who would’ve guessed?
- Bob in Cleveland, Senior Editor, Fantasy Baseball Mafia.com