By Darryl Houston Smith
League 4
League 10
Despite major improvements made by both the Detroit Tigers and the Los Angeles Angels this off-season, the defending champions remain the team to beat in the American League.
Even without trading for Johan Santana, and the possible loss of Curt Schilling for the season, the Red Sox still have one of the deepest pitching staffs in the AL. Boston also returns intact its powerful batting order, several quality reserves, and a farm system rich with prospects.
The deep pockets of John Henry and company will also ensure that the Red Sox will remain among Major League Baseball’s royalty for years to come.
Notable Off-Season Moves: 1B Sean Casey (Detroit), a 3-time All-Star and a career .301 hitter, will serve as a high quality backup for Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Casey also gives manager, Terry Francona, another left-handed bat off the bench.
RHP David Aardsma (Chicago AL) could add another quality arm to the bullpen. The former first round draft pick has been a disappointment so far in his major league career. This is his 3rd team in as many years but, at times, Aardsma has shown the potential to turn into a decent setup man. Look for elite pitching coach, John Farrell, to try to unlock this enigma during Spring Training.
The Red Sox also lost 1B Eric Hinske (unsigned), Eric Gagne (signed with Milwaukee), and RHP Matt Clement (signed with St. Louis). None will be missed.
Perhaps the biggest move was not acquiring Santana. In the end, the cost proved to be too high. The Red Sox hang onto promising youngsters, such as Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Ryan Kalish.
As Red Sox senior baseball operations adviser, Bill James, told me, “Johan Santana is a great pitcher, and the idea of having the two best pitchers in baseball at the start of the playoffs is a pretty impressive idea. On the other hand, it is possible to over pay for Santana. Most big money deals for pitchers turn out to be bad contracts. Not 40% but way over half of them.” James went on to say, “It is possible to over pay for Johan Santana as it is anyone else”. The Twins simply overplayed their hand and asked too much in return.
Starting Pitchers: If Curt Schilling cannot return this season, then the Red Sox would likely open the season with a rotation of Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester.
KEY PROJECTIONS: Look for Matsuzaka to bounce back after last season’s second half fade (16+ wins and 200+ K’s). Expect Beckett to, once again, challenge for the Cy Young (18+ wins 200+ K’s). It’s unlikely that 41-year-old, Tim Wakefield, will win another 17 games, but he and the kids (Buchholz and Lester) certainly have the ability to, at least, reach double digits in wins if they can remain healthy.
Bullpen: Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, and Hideki Okajima provide a reliable bridge to elite closer Jonathan Paplebon. The main roles in Boston’s bullpen are well defined. Barring injury, Papelbon will get the lion share of saves, so expect the others to vulture a few wins and gain a handful of saves.
An emergency spot starter could be found among Devern Hansack, Bryan Corey, or Kyle Snyder, but none of these guys is a good long-term replacement for Schilling. Boston may sign Kyle Lohse to add depth.
KEY PROJECTIONS: Look for Papelbon to remain among the elite closers and post his first 40+ save season. Okajima should provide almost a K an inning as well as some decent ratios. Delcarmen is a potential sleeper who may close out games if anything happens to Papelbon.
Projected Batting Order:
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
David Ortiz, DH
Manny Ramirez, LF
Mike Lowell, 3B
J.D. Drew, RF
Jason Varitek, C
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Julio Lugo, SS
KEY PROJECTIONS: As long as Manny Ramirez stays motivated, he will remain a top slugger providing protection for David Ortiz. Both sluggers should put up high quality numbers again.
Lugo should bounce back, but draft him only for steals … and watch his average. If all is well, it should return to the mid-.260’s.
Ellsbury will likely be a force on the base paths, as well, but will remain lower in the order since Francona does not like to run in front of both Ortiz and Ramirez. This will suppress Ellsbury’s true value, but the kid is going to be a very solid player and with a full season in center field as a starter (expect 40+ steals and .300+ average). Do not hesitate to draft him.
Role Players: Coco Crisp, Alex Cora, Brandon Moss, Bobby Kielty, Dusty Brown, Chris Carter, Jonathan Van Every.
KEY PROJECTIONS: If Coco Crisp is traded, look for Van Every to make a real run at the team. He can play all three outfield positions and has a solid arm.
Look for Kielty to give up switch-hitting; he remains a suitable spot starter against lefties. The Red Sox could still use a right-handed power hitter off the bench.
Non-Roster invitees: RHP Dan Kolb, RHP Dan Miceli, RHP Scott Atchison, C Kevin Cash, 1B Jeff Bailey, 2B Tony Granadillo, INF Keith Ginter, 2B-OF Joe Thurston, and INF Gil Velazquez were signed to minor league contracts and invited to spring training.
Only catcher Kevin Cash is given much of a chance to make the final 25-man roster. If 37-year-old backup, Doug Mirabelli, breaks down, Cash would have the upper hand to replace him. Despite the ability to handle Tim Wakefield’s knuckler, neither offers any offensive punch. Boston’s prospect-rich farm system has several inexperienced catchers with potential but would offer no standout option this season or next. Boston would likely be forced into a trade if anything were to happen to front line regular, Jason Vartiek.
Predicted finish: 99-63, 1st place in the AL East.