By Evan “the Censor” Dickens
The Wire Tap
League 8
With Erik Bedard and J.J. Putz, you have one of the top five fantasy starters and possibly the top fantasy closer. Add in what most Mariner fans hope will be the true breakout season for King Felix, and a top-notch setup man in Brandon Morrow, and you’ve got strikeouts galore. But will it be enough to take out the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Southern California of … ?
Projected Batting Order:
1. CF Ichiro Suzuki
2. 3B Adrian Beltre
3. LF Raul Ibanez
4. 1B Richie Sexson
5. RF Brad Wilkerson
6. DH Jose Vidro
7. C Kenji Johjima
8. SS Yuniesky Betancourt
9. 2B Jose Lopez
Projected Rotation:
LHP Erik Bedard
RHP Felix Hernandez
LHP Jarrod Washburn
RHP Carlos Silva
RHP Miguel Batista
Projected Closer Option: J.J. Putz
Key Setup Option: Brandon Morrow
Team Strengths: Erik Bedard and J.J. Putz. The offense is not what you’d call a sexy fantasy offense, but the Mariners were quietly third in the majors in team batting average last year, at .287 — Ichiro is a big part of that, but the rest of the team hit competently enough to cancel out Richie Sexson’s miserable waste of a season.
Team Weaknesses: Only four AL teams hit fewer home runs than the Mariners, and even with the speedy Ichiro at the top, the team finished 19th in the majors in steals. This is a team that has to manufacture runs to be successful.
The batting order is in a major state of flux right now–only Ichiro at the top is guaranteed. Most fans would like to see Raul Ibanez hit cleanup, but because of the lack of a good #2 hitter, Adrian Beltre may have to hit behind Ichiro … which makes Ibanez the #3 hitter almost by default. That means a potential reprise of Big Sexy whiffing away at cleanup. John McLaren will likely experiment with Jose Lopez and Jose Vidro at various points in the lineup again, but Lopez is on a short leash.
The starting rotation, after Bedard and Felix, is a fantasy wasteland unless Carlos Silva develops consistency (and a K/9 rate higher than 3).
Key Additions: Bedard, now, gets to pitch against the Angels, Athletics and Rangers instead of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. If his value somehow could have gone up more, it did, and if the Mariners ride his arm to the playoffs, he’ll be the Cy Young favorite.
30-year-old Brad Wilkerson is a serviceable, experienced outfielder with a good power bat who will attempt to make everyone forget Jose Guillen. To do that, the .234 batting average needs to greatly improve or he’ll be tumbling down the batting order.
IF Miguel Cairo’s most important role could be pushing the young and inconsistent Lopez to finally show some consistency.
Key Losses: Jose Guillen was a solid bat who ended up hitting third most of the year, but the Mariners (wisely) weren’t willing to pay what he was demanding when a healthy Wilkerson may have a reasonably comparable season.
Who really knows what Adam Jones was capable of and whether he might be the next Alfonso Soriano–he also might be the next Rocco Baldelli and the Mariners should be happy for the value that they received for him.
Impact Rookies: Jones would have been the only real option before; with his departure and the money and future capital spent on Bedard and Silva, it’s time for the Mariners to win now because the offensive window will not be open long. Though he’s not a rookie, Brandon Morrow could be a key this season. He was projected to have an edge for the fifth starter role, but, with Bedard’s addition, that no longer makes sense … and he was extremely effective in the bullpen.
If something changes and Morrow does end up in the rotation, the relief ahead of Putz gets a lot shakier. 24-year-old RHP Robert Rohrbaugh, who pitched very well in the minors in 2006, could be a midseason call-up if a rotation hole needs to be plugged.
Core Fantasy Options: Ichiro is a second-rounder in most formats but must be successfully teamed with a good power infielder to keep your team balanced.
Bedard now challenges Webb for the third starter to be taken, which will put him squarely in the heat of the third round.
Putz, in this writer’s opinion, is the top closer and worthy of a late fourth-round pick.
Make sure you take a good look at Beltre’s numbers last year. He’s probably a more solid 3B candidate than you realize and is sure to go off the board before the 10th round.
Potential Sleeper(s): Not a lot to choose from here; you basically know what you get with most of the Mariners vets. If Cairo actually succeeds in pushing Jose Lopez to reach his potential, Lopez will be a nice late-round MI.
The big sleeper could be Brandon Morrow; he may be a top-five setup option and a great handcuff for Putz–who has no more of a guarantee of staying healthy than any other closer.
Potential Bust: King Felix has all the raw potential in the world, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him finish in the top five in the AL in K’s and be keep-able in Mafia formats next year. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he goes 13-11 with a 4.40 ERA. Taking him in the 7th round, where his ADP suggests he’ll go, is not wise, but if he slips in your draft then he could be a solid pick–the addition of Bedard will take a lot of pressure off of him.
Late Round Steal: If Richie Sexson is still on the board in the 21st or 22nd round, he actually may be worth a speculative play. He can’t be any worse than last year, and if his confidence improves and the fans can rally back behind him, you could find 30+ homers this late. Remember though, even in his best years he was a second half player.