By Butters in DC

League 14

Don’t say nothin’ and keep looking straight ahead. Your next contract is in the newspaper to your right. Those who don’t know what they don’t know love the guy you’re about to ‘whack’. He’s real slick on the basepaths, and with the promise of steals, he’ll beg you to spare him. Problem is, he doesn’t give you much else.

And there’s a new guy in the family. He’s a real up-and-comer who’ll be a great keeper option for the foreseeable future. Bonus: he plays a position that had exactly one player to get really excited about just two years ago.

That’s right, we’re talking about Juan Pierre of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Ian Kinsler of the Texas Rangers.

So, what’s not to love about a guy that gives you 55 steals every single year? Well, how about the fact that, when it comes to home runs and RBIs, he is a HVS [Remember – Human Void Space?].  Since his rookie year, Pierre has 12 career home runs - TOTAL - and has averaged just 41 RBIs a season. Last season, 163 players hit 12 or more home runs and 229 players had at least 41 RBIs.

One argument for Pierre is that “he has a high batting average - he’s a career .300 hitter.”  Yes, that is true, but it’s also true that (a) batting average is the most volatile hitting category … and (b) Pierre has not hit .300 since 2004.  A better argument is “Juan Pierre scores a bunch of runs, so he’s valuable” … which is partially true (he was 37th in runs last year).

Pierre is above average in runs, excellent for steals, slumping in average, and is abysmal in home runs and RBIs - so what do you have to pay to get this speed demon? Well, in 2007, his ADP was 58th, and he rewarded you with the second most steals (64) in the Majors.  But was he the best value for your money at that position?  Would you rather have had Pierre over the Baltimore Orioles 2B, Brian Roberts (50 steals, ADP 66), the Seattle Mariners closer, J.J. Putz (40 SV + 1.38 ERA + 82K’s with an ADP of 72), or the Milwaukee Brewers 1B, Prince Fielder (50HR, ADP 93)?

Now, I know that there was no way to know that Putz would have one of the greatest seasons a closer has ever had or that a second year player would hit more homers than anyone but A-Rod, but wouldn’t you rather have taken the chance?  Watch out Pierre, the Hit List is out, and you’re on it!

Let’s close with the good news. Ian Kinsler got hurt last year and still had a 20/20 season. Two years ago, Philadelphia Phillie Chase Utley was the only legitimate player at 2B (okay … maybe aging Dodger Jeff Kent still had a little respectability left). Then, along came Brian Roberts, Brandon Phillips, Howie Kendrick, Dan Uggla, Robinson Cano, and Ian Kinsler. Utley is still tops at the position, but the gap is closing fast.

In 130 games, Kinsler had 20 homers and 23 steals to go along with 96 runs and 61 RBIs. Had he been able to play the entire year, a 30/30 season wouldn’t have been out of the question.

Last year Kinsler had an ADP of 144, making him a 13th round selection. This year, he has crept up to a 7th round pick. In his second full season in the Majors, Kinsler hit more homers than Utley and stole more bags than all but four big league second-sackers. According to the MLB Fantasy 411’s composite projections*, Kinsler is expected to hit .272 with 20 home runs, 19 stolen bases, 91 runs, and 68 RBIs; and those numbers are based on Kinsler batting 8th. Michael Young is the only other Texas Ranger who stands a chance of putting up better numbers than Kinsler this season, so expect Kinsler’s batting position to move up along with his run and RBI opportunities.

I love players that are all-around contributors. Guys that can contribute in all 5 fantasy hitting categories are a fairly rare commodity and are usually drafted early because of it. Take advantage of an undervalued Ian Kinsler while you can. This will be the season that the name Ian Kinsler joins the ranks of Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, and Curtis Granderson as a 5-tool player. Ian, please take your seat beside Ichiro and Javier; welcome to the club.

[*These are composite projections made from sources across the fantasy baseball universe and do not reflect the statistical opinions of MLB Fantasy 411’s staff.]