By Chris from Maine
The 2008 Florida Marlins are a sure bet to be battling it out with the Washington Nationals for the NL East cellar, but that certainly does not suggest that there are not any fantasy-worthy players in South Florida. The exact opposite may be true: there are potential sources of draft day value to be found on this squad, all of whom could boost your team this year.
Most fantasy pundits are looking at the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade as a huge loss for the Marlins, both from a real-life and fantasy standpoint. I disagree on the latter. While nobody can deny that losing Miguel Cabrera will certainly hurt the Marlins on offense, the trade provides an outstanding opportunity for many of the young players on this roster to step up and excel.
It looks like Fredi Gonzalez, the Marlins’ manager, will stick with the following lineup, or at least something awfully close to it:
Projected Batting Order
1. Hanley Ramirez SS
2. Dan Uggla 2B
3. Jeremy Hermida RF
4. Josh Willingham LF
5. Mike Jacobs 1B
6. Cameron Maybin CF
7. Dallas MacPherson 3B
8. Matt Treanor C
The first obvious notable here is that Hanley Ramirez is more than likely going to be pegged as the leadoff hitter. This is absolutely the right choice as the only alternatives are Cameron Maybin, who is a rookie, and Alfredo Amezega, who really is nothing more than a bench/role player.
Ramirez will provide excellent production from shortstop … which continues to be a weak position offensively across Major League Baseball. The stolen bases, runs scored, and power that he will undoubtedly provide is what makes him a near-certain top-three selection on draft day. Do not worry about his offseason shoulder surgery: the worst you can expect from this is fewer headfirst slides … and maybe 5-10 less steals this season.
Dan Uggla is what I like to call a “Saltine.” Much like the cracker, he is reliable, good on occasion, but will never ‘wow’ you. He provides solid power numbers … but little else. With the departure of Miguel Cabrera, perhaps nobody else in the lineup will see a bigger drop-off this year than Uggla. Stay away - you have been warned.
Jeremy Hermida is an interesting option this season and is perhaps one of my favorite sleepers for 2008. It seems that all of the talk about the younger prospects such as Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Evan Longoria that is dominating web sites, blogs, and podcasts everywhere has benefited those of you looking to pick up Hermida; in my recent mock drafts, he has been falling into the later rounds in 12-team leagues.
Remember, this is the same player who “experts” were pinning as a potential 20/20 guy. I am going on record here - Hermida will be 20/15 this year. The 15 steals will be tough because you’ll have Hanley nabbing most of them. Spend a late mid-round pick on Hermida, and laugh your way to the bank.
Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs are much like Dan Uggla in that they are both “Saltine-like.” However, they will both see improved numbers with the departure of Miguel Cabrera. Both players have 25-plus home run power, and both are capable of 90-plus RBI. These are very good 4th-tier players to target in order to fill out your roster.
Cameron Maybin will be one of two things this year: a Mike Cameron/Shane Victorino hybrid or a rookie looking to find his MLB swing. I would plan on projections near .265/15/70, with right around 20 steals. This is nothing earth shattering, of course, but certainly good production in multiple categories from, technically, a first-year player.
As for Dallas MacPherson and Matt Treanor, these are two dudes you will certainly want to avoid … except in deep, NL-only leagues.
Projected Rotation
1. Scott Olsen LHP
2. Sergio Mitre RHP
3. Mark Hendrickson LHP
4. Andrew Miller LHP
5. Rick VandenHurk RHP
Other Candidates: Ricky Nolasco RHP, Anibal Sanchez RHP (DL)
The starting rotation is the team’s weakness, for certain. Scott Olsen has struggled with his command, and many question his mental toughness. Sergio Mitre was brought over from the Cubs in 2006 and has issues with free passes - he really is a #5 pitcher being forced to be a front-of-the-rotation starter. As for Hendrickson, a 5.21 ERA in Dodger Stadium is not going to project well anywhere - he really should be in AAA.
Andrew Miller is a perhaps a sleeper in the back end of this horrific rotation. He is highly touted, having come out of powerhouse University of North Carolina, where he posted insane numbers. He was one of the cogs in the Miguel Cabrera deal. Rick VandenHurk, a former Tommy John pitcher, failed to impress last season with a 6.83 ERA and 1.74 WHIP - they’d be better off with Ricky Nolasco … or me!
Projected Closer: Kevin Gregg
The bullpen has been an Achilles heel, but Kevin Gregg has been serviceable.
Key Setup Men: Taylor Tankersley LHP, Matt Lindstrom RHP, Justin Miller RHP
Team Strengths: Speed
There is plenty of youthful enthusiasm, with players trying to make a name for themselves. The team has decent power throughout the lineup.
Team Weaknesses: Rotation (as above) … as well as several other things
This is a very young, inexperienced squad. It’s not a particularly strong defensive team, especially in the middle infield. There is a potential time-split at catcher between Treanor and Mike Rabelo. Expect lots of plate discipline issues, with many free-swingers. The pitching staff is also very young, very inexperienced, and, in the past, has had trouble going late in games.
Key Additions: Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Dallas MacPherson, Luis Gonzalez
Key Losses: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis
Impact Rookies: Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller
Maybin has the starting CF job, plenty of speed, and has hit well at every level leading up to the Majors.
Miller has had control issues this spring and has failed to show the pinpoint accuracy and devastating slider that he displayed in college. If he can sort out his control issues, he could win 8-10 games with decent strikeout numbers.
Core Fantasy Options: Ramirez, Hermida, Gregg, Uggla
Hanley Ramirez is an obvious top-5 pick in all formats, contributing in all categories; Jeremy Hermida is a late-round source of cheap steals and decent HR/RBI numbers; Kevin Gregg continues as the closer and should notch right around 30 saves for the Fish; and Dan Uggla should give you 30 HR pop, which you cannot argue with from a second baseman - the average will hurt, though.
Potential Sleeper: Josh Willingham
It seems that Willingham has the inside track on the cleanup spot, and with Ramirez, Uggla, and Hermida ahead of him, there should be RBI opportunities aplenty. You are looking at an under-the-radar source of 25-30 HR and 85-plus RBI. Willingham could prove to be the second most valuable player on the Marlins in 2008, and you will be hard-pressed to find another 85 RBI-producing outfielder past the 15th round.
Potential Busts: Scott Olsen, Cameron Maybin
Although he’s projected to be the team’s “ace”, Olsen has produced less than average numbers over the past few seasons. He is most valuable in leagues that count strikeouts because the ERA and WHIP leave a lot to be desired.
For all the hype that Maybin’s been getting, it is certainly possible that we see a sub-.250 average, under 20 steals, and under 20 HR. Proceed with caution.
Late Round Steals: Jeremy Hermida
For all the reasons we listed above, Hermida can be had for a song later in most mixed league drafts.