By Terry Mahoney
Cappo, League 13
2008 marks the one-hundredth year since the Chicago Cubs last won the World Series. Their last World Series appearance was in 1945. With the addition of a Japanese import, and a year of experience, is 2008 finally the year of the Cub?
Projected Batting Order
1. Alfonso Soriano LF
2. Kosuke Fukudome RF
3. Derrek Lee 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Mark DeRosa 2B
6. Geovany Soto C
7. Ryan Theriot SS
8. Felix Pie CF
9. Pitcher
Lou Piniella is known to jumble his batting orders. Although he has come out and said he will tone it down this year, I expect this season to be no different. Piniella has released a lineup different from this one, but, in the end, I think this is what he will end up with.
Projected Rotation
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Rich Hill
4/5. Sean Marshall/Ryan Dempster/Jason Marquis/Jon Lieber
Projected Closer: Bob Howry
Right now, the closer is Howry, but that could change in the near future. The next two most likely candidates are Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol. Piniella likes a veteran presence out there at closer, so expect Howry for the beginning part of the season. However, I would not be surprised if Marmol ends up with more saves because his stuff is just too good not to be a “The Man”.
Key Setup Options: Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol
Platoon Watch: OF, SS
Everything looks pretty set, except for Felix Pie in CF. If he starts the season like he ended last year, look for Kosuke Fukudome to move over to center. This will be accompanied by a platoon of Matt Murton, Daryle Ward, and Mark DeRosa in RF … with Pie moving back down to Iowa.
An acquisition of Brian Roberts would throw SS into the mix as a platoon possibility as Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa would have to battle for time.
Key Additions: Kosuke Fukudome, Jon Lieber
Fukudome is an interesting player. Scouts and stat-heads expect his OBP to carry over from Japan, but his power numbers should dip a little. That means close to a .400 OBP and anywhere from 15-20 HR. Extrapolated over a season, Fukudome is a 30 Run improvement over the mess the Cubs had in RF last season.
Jon Lieber will fight for the fifth starter’s role and be a pitch-or-ditch guy, at best.
Key Losses: Jacque Jones
Jones ended the season on a tear and it earned him a starting spot in a potent Detroit Tigers lineup. If his second half of last season carries over into this season, Cubs fans could have another excuse to bash management.
Impact Rookies: Geovany Soto
Was last season an aberration, or is he the real deal? He could become a top fantasy catcher over the next few seasons if his numbers continue upwards.
Core Fantasy Options: Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano
None are first rounders by any stretch of the imagination, but they will go early in drafts. The three hitters bring pop to the plate and are looking to bounce back from last year’s disappointing power numbers. Zambrano is also looking to rebound after an inconsistent ‘07 campaign.
Late Round Steal: Ryan Theriot
As much as I do not like him as an everyday player, Theriot is a late round speed value pick. He does not offer much in any other department, but a team desperate for steals should take a flyer on him.
Potential Busts: Kosuke Fukudome, Geovany Soto
Fukudome is going very high in drafts for somebody that has not seen an MLB pitch. He should be taken with caution, because we know that ’import horror stories’ are possible … I’m looking at you, Kaz Matsui. Of course, there have been some import success stories, as well, like Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui.
Prior to last season, Soto’s production in the minors had been far from stellar. He has graded out as an average player, but his performance last year indicates cornerstone. My guess is that we will see a Soto in between; somebody worth taking in the middle rounds.