By Ken Balderston
League 14
League 15
Now that draft season is upon us, it’s a perfect time to release the second part of my series on the effects of age on fantasy players: Closers.
Players who are over the age of 35 are known to regress statistically, but to what extent? How much should you realistically expect a player to regress based on his age?
With corner stone closers, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, and Jason Isringhausen, all over the age of 35, it’s important to review the stats before spending a high draft pick on them.
For this study, I’ve collected the statistics a player accumulated by age, between 35 and 40, and compared them to the stats they produced the year before. All active Major League closers 35 and older were included in the study. Here is a list of some notable closers and the age they will be turning this year:
Jason Isringhausen - 36
Joe Borowski - 37
Billy Wagner - 37
Takashi Saito - 38
Troy Percival - 39
Mariano Rivera - 39
Todd Jones - 40
The sample size for this study is small, just under 25% of all closers. However, the importance that the fantasy team owner places upon saves is significant; after all, when was the last time that, at the end of a draft, a closer was left undrafted?
And, if a closer is demoted to the role of middle reliever, his perceived value is greatly reduced, so the potential for him to be replaced as the closer mid-season is something that you’ll want to consider.
True, saves can be a product of the team the closer plays on, but viewing the stat in aggregate can hint at what age players are being taken out of the closer role.
For example, there were increases in saves for the group in age 35, 37, 38 and 39 seasons. This increase can partly be explained as veterans successfully recovering from injury (Todd Jones & Trevor Hoffman … both in their age 37 season) and others that were newly appointed to the closer role (Joe Borowski’s age 35 season & Al Reyes’ age 37 season) maintained jobs all year.
Coming into the 2008 season, players who match this description are Troy Percival and, possibly, Jamie Walker … if George Sherrill fails to win the job in Baltimore.
The two years in which saves fell significantly are the age 36 and 40 seasons. The main reason for the save totals falling in the age 36 season was injuries to Troy Percival, Eddie Guardado and Trevor Hoffman. These three relievers combined for 21 saves in their age 36 seasons after posting 107 saves the previous year. This could be seen as a coincidence, but the fact is that 33% of the closers who qualified for this study suffered serious injuries at this age.
In addition, they were all considered stable and reliable closers until this point in their career. This adds some significance to the results.
The main reason for the drop in save totals for the age 40 seasons was Jose Mesa and Tom Gordon losing their jobs due to injury and ineffectiveness. It’s very difficult to keep a closer’s job if you are not performing, leading to two possible situations. Either the closer is on a team with a deep bullpen that has a capable backup ready to take over or the team falls out of contention and looks to trade the veteran and bring in a young closer of the future.
In the case of Mesa and Gordon, they should probably have been replaced sooner, but their respective clubs were not inclined to make a change.
Young relief pitchers have a reputation of being erratic and unreliable year to year; few relief pitchers can string together several seasons of performance worthy of a roster spot on our fantasy teams. But, if they’ve been given the closer’s role, as they age, they tend to be more reliable.
From the age of 35 to 39, the group’s ERA went up and down year to year, but tended to stay within a quarter and a half run of the previous year. The WHIP rate also did not vary greatly, staying within 0.03 and 0.08 of the previous year’s totals. Yes, it rose slightly at times and went down slightly in some seasons, but there was not enough variance for a manager to pull the plug on a closer … nor to affect his fantasy value.
The K/9 rate also was fairly stable through the age 35 through 37 seasons but started to regress a little in the age 38 seasons. As a group, they fell from 7.45 K/9 to 6.56 … which is about the same rate of regression Bob Wickman suffered last season.
The age 40 season is the year the relievers showed the greatest regression from their previous years. The group saw its ERA rise by 0.75, and WHIP rise by 0.07. Their K/9 rate also regresses significantly dropping from 7.12 to 5.58. This would likely be enough regression to prompt a manager to start looking for a backup option.
Unfortunately for Tiger fans, Todd Jones is entering his age 40 season and the data would suggest that he may be removed from the closer role if his rate stats regress to this extent.
Closers tend to be more reliable as they age. They tend to stay effective well into their late 30’s, and at times, they show notable improvements from the previous year. There are some red flags to be aware of, but they may not be as risky as the general perception would suggest. When the season starts, the proven veteran has as much chance of matching last year’s stats as the young flamethrower.
If you have any comments, questions, or if you’d like to see the results of this study in aggregate, email me at Kenba@FantasyBaseballMafia.com. To see my past articles … including ‘The Effects of Age on a Hitter’s Fantasy Value’, click the link below:
http://www.fantasybaseballmafia.com/fbm/category/author/ken-balderston/