Pete Prepares for Draft Day
By Pete in Jordan
League 6
By the time you guys read this, I will have already had my Mafia League 6 draft … shout out to the best league in the world! Chris from NorCal is the best commish representin’! I thought it might be instructive if I got more specific about the steps I’m taking to prepare for my draft, and, then, next week I can discuss what actually happened.
Setting the Scene
We’re talking about 12-team, 5X5, “vanilla”, and I have the “wheel pick” at slot number 12. I will show you how I approach picking from that position, and you can apply that to your own circumstances.
Step 1 - Player Rankings
I, first, have to look at my player rankings and projections. I suggest looking at any intelligent ranking system that you trust, but the FBM Top 420 would be a great place to start. Then, tweak it to suit your particular ‘man-crushes’. Once you have done that, you might want to consider just choosing the highest ranked player that falls to you every time, but I believe a more deliberate strategy needs to be in place because you need to anticipate which positions you need to fill as the draft moves along.
Remember, the player rankings are never an exact science. You might have 20 starting pitchers bunched up as the best values between rounds 4 and 9, but if you use those rounds to draft only pitchers, your offense will need Viagra just to stand up at the plate.
Are you compromising value by deviating from your rankings? No, because there is no real difference in value between your 62nd player, as ranked, and your 67th player, as ranked. You don’t know for sure who will produce more, it is only an estimation. Obviously, you want to stay within certain limits, though, so don’t draft Adam Dunn in the first round when you can get him in the third … but, in the end, remain flexible.
Step 2 - Establish Your Philosophy
Going into your draft, many people know what style best suits their in-season roster management. Many players like to load up on power offense and cherry pick pitchers and speed guys as the season progresses. Others see this tendency as an opportunity to draft great pitchers and build depth from which they can trade for whatever offensive needs emerge during the season.
As for me, I don’t mind chasing saves … it’s kind of fun! … as much as I mind chasing every offensive category. I also see great value in the top catchers, because very few great new ones emerge during the season, and you need Superman to make up the difference between V-Mart and Brian Schneider.
When it comes to pitchers, I am a ’slave’ to the K’s. Knowing these tendencies of mine, I can now plan my draft accordingly.
Step 3 - Anticipating the Draft
I believe this step separates the ‘men’ from the ‘boys’. At the “wheel pick”, I already know that A-Rod, Reyes, Hanley, Holliday, Wright, Utley, Rollins should be taken. I have to assume that Howard and Cabrera will also be gone. I am passing on Pujols in the first round, even if he falls to me at the wheel, so that leaves the top dudes on my board as Johan, Fielder, Braun, and Crawford.
Guess what, if Pujols does not get selected, I still have exactly 13 names on this list. That means that I’m loving the wheel because I am guaranteed to have 2 of these 13 players. I like this pick better than picking 7-11 because I see a “dropoff” between number 13 and the next pick (Soriano? Beltran?).
Truth is , in my perfect world, l would rather have one of the top 6 players and then combine them with Teixeira in the second round. Then, I could come back with Russell Martin or V-Mart in the third, but the wheel is still better than any other position in the second half of the draft … in my opinion.
So I am anticipating my first decision of the draft early.
Johan
Fielder
Braun
Crawford
These are all very different types of players to build around. How do I choose? If I strictly go for top value, I could wind up hurting in my categories. For example, there is a very plausible scenario in which Utley slips to me and I find the two most valuable guys to be Utley and Santana. If I draft them, where will my power/speed come from? Our great sage, Cory Schwartz, likes to come out of the first three rounds with at least 80 HRs and 65 SB’s. If I take Chase and Johan, I will be sitting on great value, but I will still need to find a “sleeper” in the third round to go 50/50 for me … just to get off on the right foot! Is ‘Howard Reyes’ in this draft?
In order to make a smarter decision, I can look at what will be available later in the draft and draft my core accordingly. I think the first half of your draft can be planned in advance, after which you fill your gaps with the best guys remaining. Let’s do it by position …
Catchers - I would like to get one of the top five catchers early and then go for Buck/Hernandez/Towles/Molina later … depending on who is left. Of the top five, I believe Posada is overvalued this year, based on last year’s performance. I would only draft him if he falls to me, which he wont.
That leaves V-Mart, Martin, Mauer, and McCann. At the wheel, V-Mart and Martin will not survive to the end of the third round. That leaves Mauer and McCann. I think round 3-4 is way too early for those guys. If Mauer is still available at 5-6 (pick 60-61), I might have to take him because of the upside. The FBM Top 420 has all these catchers going very low. I’m not saying that I disagree, but I don’t want to rely on that projection and miss out on a guy. Unless someone great comes along, I am using the 5-6 pick on Mauer … if he lasts (in mock drafts, he has been taken about half of the time at that point). Otherwise, I’ll improvise with my catcher position.
First Base - Love ‘AGonz’. Hate Petco and that offense (what offense?). Not interested in fielding Conor Jackson as my starting first basemen. If Howard falls to me at the wheel, he’s mine. I’m not counting on it. I like D. Lee at the wheel at 3-4. He seems to always make it through the third round. I like the BA and the power. His wrist should be fully healthy. I’ve got my first basemen. This might sway me to pass on Fielder in the first …
Second Base - Being at the wheel is huge in considering this position. Utley goes in the first. Phillips and Upton in the late second. I might go for Roberts if he makes it to the end of the third. I like his speed and BA. The ‘man-crush’ here is Rickie Weeks. 5-6 is a little too early. 7-8 might be too late. I don’t care if A-Rod is still on the board, I am taking Weeks at 7-8 … even if I already have two second basemen. If Weeks is gone, I’ll take Kendrick here. I think he’ll run this year.
Third Base - Here is where you don’t want to get jumpy. Why draft Beltre in the 8th when you can get Encarnacion in the 15th? Cory Schwartz said it best. Third base this year will be the kind of position where you draft Alex Gordon and regret that you waited until the tenth round to draft a third basemen, only to wind up drafting three more the likes of Kouzmanoff, Feliz, Glaus and Wigginton. It is simply a deep, deep position. I’m waiting as long as I can … but if Cabrera falls to me, I’ll be in a quandry. He’s such a monster!
Shortstop - The trinity of Rollins, Reyes, and Hanley will not fall to me. I think the 3-4 wheel is too early for Tulowitzki, if he makes it. My conundrum here is Jeter. I’m tempted to let him pass and hope for Furcal or Tejada at 7-8. I actually don’t think they will last to there, so I am probably going to wind up with OCab at 10-11 … which is fine by me. Is the drop from Jeter worth 7 rounds? I’ll take the hit.
Outfield - Gotta be careful here. I love the new blood … Milledge, Justin Upton, Ellsbury, Delmon Young. I’m hoping to get at least one of these guys in the early to mid-teen rounds. The key is to already have at least two studs at outfield before these guys come around. These guys are nice compliments, but they won’t bring you a YooHoo shower if they take up space at the top of your outfield depth chart. The problem is, the entire second and third rounds are littered with stud outfielders while I’m waiting like a dope at the end of the third … hoping for a little value. This influences my 1-2 pick greatly.
Pitching - I’m comfortable with two ”Soria-types” as closers … and speculative starters and middle relievers at the end. I think guys like Broxton and Bell are great, but they are the same guy with different names every year. Don’t pay a premium 12th-15th round pick for last year’s flavor of the month. Seek them out during the year. I’m taking my first closer at the 11-12 wheel.
The top of my rotation looks different depending on whether I draft Santana. Mike Siano speaks of a “soft ace”. There are many of them from rounds 4-8, starting from Bedard, moving on to Hamels/Lackey/Kazmir, then to Felix/Dice-K, then Haren/Sabathia/Verlander/Smoltz. It tapers off at Myers/Sheets (if healthy) and closes out at Oswalt/Halladay.
That is a lot of guys. If I draft Santana, I feel I can skip the 3-4 wheel and grab one of Felix/Dice-K at the 5-6 and then maybe Oswalt at 9-10 and be done with pitching. If I don’t draft Santana, I will feel compelled to spend three picks between 3-8 on stud guys. The extra pick in the 3-8 rounds is the price you pay for drafting Prince Fielder instead of Johan. I have to ask myself, which would I prefer? Prince and Lackey or Johan and D. Lee. It’s close, but I think D. Lee and Johan are more likely to earn me a big return.
Can you imagine that all this grey matter is being invested just to figure out who my first pick at the wheel is going to be? It’s called preparation.
The verdict? If available, I go …
1-2 = Johan/Braun. This buys me another pick in the early rounds that I would otherwise have had to spend on a pitcher and gives me power/speed in the outfield where I’ll eventually slot Braun.
3-4 = D. Lee/Alex Rios. There’s my second outfielder. I’ll take Abreu/Markakis here too. Now I have some BA, speed, and power. Not huge, but enough to justify the Johan pick.
5-6 = Felix/Mauer or Chris B. Young/Mauer. I’ll get my catcher with upside and either a stud outfielder or pitcher.
7-8 = Weeks/Dice-K. If I already took Felix, I might go Weeks/Furcal or Tejada.
9-10 = I’ll take my last pitcher here. Oswalt/Halladay/Myers would be just fine. I’ll complement my offense with the second pick. Depending on need, I might go Alex Gordon, Shane Victorino, or Jim Thome.
11-12 = Soria/Corpas, et al. I’m thinking one closer and one offensive player for the next three round … then fit needs.
Step 4 - Be Flexible
I go in with this strategy, then prepare for it to blow up when I land Prince Fielder and Carl Crawford as my first two picks, then all I have to do is tweak it a bit during the draft.
Step 5 - Stick a note in the Western Wall … this is where religion is very helpful to keep you fresh and optimistic! I’ll let you know how it all goes!
-PIJ