By Pete in Jordan
League 6
Previously, on Peteinjordan’s ‘Man-crush Monologues’ …
Last week, before my 12 team 5X5 vanilla Mafia draft, I outlined my strategy for picking in the 12th spot. I wrote:
“If available, I go …
1-2 = Johan/Braun. This buys me another pick in the early rounds that I would otherwise spend on a pitcher and gives me power/speed in the outfield where I’ll eventually slot Braun.
3-4 = D. Lee/Alex Rios. There is my second outfielder. I’ll take Abreu/Markakis here too. Now I have some BA, speed, and power. Not huge but enough to justify the Johan pick.
5-6 = Felix/Mauer or Chris B. Young/Mauer. I’ll get my catcher with upside and either a stud outfielder or pitcher.
7-8 = Weeks/Dice-K. If I already took Felix, I might go Weeks/Furcal or Tejada
9-10 = I take my last pitcher here. Oswalt/Halladay/Myers would be just fine. I complement my offense with the second pick. Depending on need, I might go Alex Gordon, Shane Victorino, or Jim Thome.
11-12 = Soria/Corpas/Capps/Street, et al. I’m thinking one closer and one offensive player for the next three rounds … then fit needs.
Step 4 - Be flexible”
I think it is instructive to compare my plan with what actually happened …
My draft, in order:
Braun, Ryan (MIL)
Crawford, Carl (TB)
Lee, Derrek (CHN)
Webb, Brandon (ARI)
Hamels, Cole (PHI)
Jeter, Derek (NYA)
Weeks, Rickie (MIL)
Matsuzaka, Daisuke (BOS)
Bay, Jason (PIT)
Gordon, Alex (KC)
Milledge, Lastings (WAS)
Kendrick, Howie (LAA)
Towles, J.R. (HOU)
Gagne, Eric (MIL)
Lidge, Brad (PHI)
Snell, Ian (PIT)
Hernandez, Ramon (BAL)
Sherrill, George (BAL)
Upton, Justin (ARI)
Johnson, Randy (ARI)
Crisp, Coco (BOS)
Hall, Bill (MIL)
Sexson, Richie (SEA)
Teahen, Mark (KC)
Patterson, John (WAS)
Bailey, Homer (CIN)
Kearns, Austin (WAS)
Kershaw, Clayton (LAD)
The good news – overall, I cannot be too disappointed with this team because it has some of the classic characteristics that I was targeting. There are no absolute ‘black holes’ in any position or category.
On offense, I have balanced players … all of whom offer a mix of speed and power. Drafting Crawford gave me the luxury of not having to draft Bourne, Tavares, Figgins, Pierre, etc. to accumulate speed. I knew that all I had to do was go with balanced players, and I would snag plenty of speed. This is a considerable benefit.
I have no problem putting my fate in the hands of talented youngsters on verge of stardom like Weeks, Milledge, Gordon, Braun, Kendrick, and Towles. These are not purely speculative rookies. They are studs. I would be surprised if most of these guys were not keepers at this time next year.
My bullpen came at a discount … with no closer chosen before round 13. Gagne, Lidge, and Sherrill could all be dominant, but they come with risk. I was shooting for the less risky Soria/Corpas/Capps class, but those guys all went the round before I was ready to draft them.
My starting rotation is vintage ‘peteinjordan’. Every single guy on that roster can notch 200 Ks. It is very difficult to draft to win ERA and WHIP because those categories fluctuate so much. You certainly can’t reliably draft for wins. K’s, however, are another story. They are a skill, and my boys have that skill. When you are gunning to win K’s, all it takes is one Wang to ruin your efforts. Since I intend to max my innings with the pitch-or-ditch method, I need to be sure that all my regulars can ‘bring it’ in the K department.
The bad news – I like entering the year with more power. Sexson looks good this spring, and he can’t be worse than last year. If he puts in a good season, I’m in great shape, but I don’t want to be that guy who is blinded by optimism. In short, I would be better served to have my power covered without counting on the contribution from Sexson. I also mentioned my potentially weak bullpen.
In general, my team lacks that bonafide veteran stud … both on offense and pitching. The name “C. Lee” or “M. Cabrera” would add a lot to this jumpy bunch. Even “Swisher”, “Thome”, or “A. Jones” would be nice.
The lesson – I think I was not flexible enough in this draft. I was too fixated on matching whatever Santana would give me in the event that I could not draft him.
I was also too fixated on taking Braun with Santana … and taking D. Lee at 3-4 instead of Fielder at 1-2. Given a second chance, I would take Fielder and Crawford at 1-2 … then Webb and Markakis at 3-4. Swisher would have followed, at 7 or 8, instead of Dice-K.
If I had drafted this way, my pitching staff might be almost as good, without Dice-K, and I would have nailed down a lot more power in both my outfield and my corners. My net change would be a downgrade from Dice-K to someone like Billingsly at 9-10. For that downgrade, I would net an upgrade from D. Lee to Fielder at first, and Braun/Bay would become Markakis/Swisher.
By my estimation, I would be gaining an extra 30 homers for the downgrade from Dice-K to Billingsly. Considering the rest of my team, I think that would have been the elixir to, what I judge as, my team’s ills.
I would have also had the chance to draft a closer like Corpas at 11-12, where I originally intended to draft closers … were I not desperate for a potential power outfielder like Bay at that point. That would have helped solidify my bullpen.
Make no mistake, if you find yourself grimacing when you pick a player, and hoping they will play over their heads, that is a red flag. That’s how I felt about the Bay pick.
Now, I might be nitpicking. Braun could be a monster, and Bay could be reborn as the second round stud he once was, but these little nuances can make all the difference.
Take home message – don’t get too greedy if you see yourself loading up on a commodity early … especially starters. Stay cool, stay patient, and stay flexible, and keep your team balanced.
I’ll keep you posted as the season goes on! Feel free to e-mail any questions or comments to peteinjordan@aol.com