Chad in DC

Cappo, League 16

So, do closers on decent teams rack up significantly more saves than firemen on teams that can only dream of reaching the .500 mark?

As you read this rhetorical question, you may think to yourself, of course they do. Well I say, not so fast, fellow fantasy baseball enthusiasts! I come armed with evidence that contradicts this commonly held, but seemingly inaccurate, perception.

Resident FBM statistician extraordinaire, Tim Collins, spent no doubt many a sleepless night building a brilliant statistical program to calculate the relevant linear regression formula, R, and R-Squared. In the spirit of full disclosure, I really don’t know what any of this means, so I’m going to keep my overview of the methodology pretty high-level … and yes, you can thank me for that later.

First, Tim’s analysis demonstrated that, as winning percentage rises, save opportunities do not reliably move up or down. Or in ’statistical speak’, the two variables are not related.  Amazingly, there is an even weaker correlation between a team’s average run differential (runs scored minus runs given up) over the course of a season and save chances.

In the end, Tim concluded that if you remove the teams who are “outliers” record-wise, meaning the extreme cellar-dwellers and stalwart front-runners, there is a minimal difference in save opportunities between the rest of the teams.

Aside from a team’s won-loss record, keep in mind that there are many other factors that determine how many save chances a given closer gets a year. For instance, a porous middle relief corps that seems to only excel at blowing leads, or playing for a manager who refuses to pitch the same reliever three days in a row, can dramatically impact a fireman’s save chances.

With all that said, you may be wondering to yourself, so what does all this really mean for me? Well, I’m glad you asked. If you don’t have the luxury of getting your hands on the K-Rods and Putz-es of the world, valuable closers can be found later in the draft. In fact, they will likely be on the board later than they should be, in large part because they play for the expected division doormats.

So don’t hesitate to scoop up Brian Wilson or Jason Isringhausen, as they might see just as many save chances as closers flying off the board 50 or 100 spots higher in your draft. And, in case you need any more proof, last year, Bobby Jenks tallied 40 saves for the ‘uber-disappointing’ ChiSox and Chad Cordero nailed down 37 for the rebuilding Nationals.

Enough said!