By Terry Mahoney
Cappo, League 13
Power rankings are a popular way to track team strength throughout a year, and these were constructed to lay out the upcoming 2008 baseball season.
First, I have to start with a disclaimer–these rankings are my subjective opinion. No personal statistical analysis went into the construction of this list. Instead, I have done a fair bit of research in order to help me form my own opinions.
During the season, these rankings will be updated according to past performance–and, mostly, in line with my expectations of future success. For instance, just because they are on a ‘hot’ streak, a flash in the pan team will not jump to number one during a given two or three week period. A team must show sustained growth or decline in order to move significantly in the rankings.
So, who has got the juice this year? Who will win each division? The AL and NL? The World Series?
Right now, the Boston Red Sox are on track to win the World Series as they will beat the Arizona Diamondbacks.
1. Boston
2. Detroit
3. Los Angeles AL
4. New York AL
5. Cleveland
6. Arizona
7. Chicago NL
8. Los Angeles NL
9. Toronto
10. Milwaukee
11. Colorado
12. Atlanta
13. New York NL
14. Seattle
15. Philadelphia
16. Chicago AL
17. Texas
18. Tampa Bay
19. San Diego
20. Cincinnati
21. Minnesota
22. Houston
23. Kansas City
24. St. Louis
25. San Francisco
26. Pittsburgh
27. Washington
28. Florida
29. Baltimore
30. Oakland
Analysis:
Clearly, there is a logjam of AL teams at the top of the heap. Alternatively, there is a pile of NL teams lurking at the bottom.
The AL is pretty clear cut. Boston and Los Angeles are near locks to win their divisions. That leaves New York, Detroit, and Cleveland to fight for the last playoff spots. Pick two.
No matter what their bullpen situation is, I have to pick Detroit. The offense is just too good to pass up, and they have an under-rated starting rotation going into the season. General manager Dave Dombrowski will find bullpen arms, mark my words. Whether that is within the organization, or through trade, there will be worthy arms relieving the starters.
New York is better than Cleveland–period. The Yankees bring in a traditionally stacked offense with questionable pitching. The Indians bring a solid offense with just as questionable pitching. I expect Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to shine, while Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte skate by. Mike Mussina will get torched, but there are options outside of him.
However, I don’t expect Fausto Carmona to duplicate last year’s numbers. Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, and Aaron Laffey are just not good. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera, however, will methodically close the door. Cleveland’s bullpen looks nice outside of Joe Borowski, yet he is still the closer. The lead will never be safe when he takes the mound.
The NL East is a three team race. Yes, I said three team. I decided to go with Atlanta over both New York and Philadelphia, but not by much. They’re ranked 12, 13, 15, respectively, making for an astonishingly close race.
Atlanta comes in under the radar with an above average offense, good starting rotation, and an average bullpen. Mark Teixeira, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francouer, and Brian McCann will have to carry the offense, but there is no doubt that they can do it–and do it well. Yunel Escobar could be a surprise. John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, and Tom Glavine give them a respectable top three, while Jair Jurrjens could surprise. Chuck James or Mike Hampton will continue to be ‘pitch or ditch’ fodder.
New York could win the division, but there is no depth on the roster. A front runner does not have Ryan Church in RF, Luis Castillo at 2B, Endy Chavez in LF, and Brian Schneider behind the plate–nor is their best bench player Ruben Gotay. Johan Santana obviously adds an ace to the rotation, but I am not the biggest fan of the next four starters. They are certainly not “locks” for good seasons–or mediocre ones at that. Pedro Martinez is always an injury risk, John Maine only throws fastballs, Oliver Perez is Oliver Perez, and Orlando Hernandez is an old man. No one can tell me that Mike Pelfrey adds a respectable backup option. Injuries to the starting rotation will lead this team to its demise. As much as people overrate the Mets, their bullpen is still good as long as Billy Wagner stays healthy.
Philadelphia has a dynamic offense and two good starters in Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, but after that, there’s nothing. Kyle Kendrick? Jamie Moyer? Adam Eaton? JD Durbin? Any combination of those four doesn’t scream division winning ball club. The bullpen doesn’t add much either. We all know the problems with Brad Lidge, and it’s almost a fact that Tom Gordon will get injured this season.
The NL Central is just an awful division. If the Cubs do not make the playoffs, shame on them.
The NL West is the most interesting division in baseball. Outside of San Francisco, any four of the remaining teams could win the division, although I have my questions about San Diego.
Arizona has been constructed for a deep playoff run. The offense is good. Look for Chris Young to tear up the National League. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren may be the best one-two punch in baseball. The success of the season is in the hands of Randy Johnson. If he can pitch the whole season, they are World Series contenders. The bullpen is shaky, but I think Brandon Lyon or Tony Pena will make for a good closer.
The Dodgers have great talent, but it may not be used correctly. If Joe Torre plays his best players at each position (absurd, right?), they will be in the playoffs. I’m looking at you, Juan Pierre. The Nomar Garciaparra injury could turn out to be a blessing. The starting rotation is a little weak, and one injury could throw the whole team off course, but I think they will be fine. Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton are like the Mariano Rivera-Joba Chamberlain combination in New York. Very few games will be lost in the eighth and ninth.
Colorado’s magic ride ends here. The offense is good. The pitching is bad. Need I say more?
San Diego is the opposite of Colorado. The offense is bad–awful–horrendous–[insert any other negative adjective here]. The pitching is good. They will lose many 2-1 games.
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