By Tim Collins
League 14
We’re a week into the season, and already there are a bunch of players people are ‘counting on’ based on a hot start — or ‘counting out’ due to a cold start. Here are some small-sample size “specials” from the new season, with predictions on whether or not the anomalies will continue.
Jose Reyes — 0 steals so far. I don’t have enough fingers to count the amount of fantasy “experts” who told you that you could be competitive in steals with 1 guy. Not that they were wrong, it just hasn’t materialized yet. Reyes has the track record, and whenever he gets on base, he’s on the move.
Alex Rios and Corey Hart — 0 homers combined. Both of these guys were predicted to go at least 20/20. The interesting thing is that both of these guys are running (3 steals for Hart and 4 for Rios). Rios is hitting .306 early and both have good OBPs. I expect both Rios and Hart to hit for power eventually, but they’ll still provide fantasy value in other ways until they do.
B.J. Upton — Like a majority of fantasy owners, I have a ‘man-crush’ on B.J. Upton. There’s absolutely no reason to give that up based on one week of bad stats. Upton’s high BABIP (.345 through his first 44 plate appearances this year) suggests his batting average is in for a drop. But the power is real and so is the speed, as he’s got 3 steals and a nice .386 OBP … despite hitting .270. I wouldn’t put it past him to keep up that average this year with power and speed. Having said that – keep your expectations in check.
Prince Fielder — 0 homers this year. I’m skeptical of Prince Fielder. Yes, he hit 50 homers last year, but it came out of the blue after only 28 homers in his first year. His 2006 to 2007 rise was so dramatic that I’ve been predicting a bit of a regression all off-season. Of course it’s easy to say that when he gets off to a poor start. The good news is when he hits the ball, it stays hit — but the bad news is he also strikes out a lot and doesn’t have the same track record as some of the other big-time power guys. Split the difference and say 35 homers. Why not?
Jason Kendall — The dude’s hitting .483. No, that isn’t a typo. While it’s obviously a small sample size, he’s a career .298 hitter. In a world when catchers are offensive black holes, the Brewers current #9 hitter isn’t a terrible second catcher in deep leagues.
Mike Jacobs — 5 homers already. Mark Reynolds is getting the hype for an early season power surge, but Jacobs is tied with him in HRs. It’s his age 27 season, and he was productive last year when healthy … could be this year’s Carlos Pena? Yes, the Marlins are the Marlins, but he’ll be surrounded by a better lineup than you might realize when they all get healthy. He’ll get his RBIs and Runs.
The Ellsbury/Crisp platoon has 0 steals combined. Use extreme caution here as it seems like a gametime decision as to which player starts in centerfield. Ellsbury has started the season with a frigid .176 BA in the twenty plate appearances he has managed, and rumors have it that Crisp is being shopped aggressively by the Red Sox. Neither one seems to have won the position outright, and I don’t like fantasy players who don’t play on a consistent basis.
Don’t throw your projections out the window, but don’t miss guys on the waiver wire who might be able to help you now. I’d pick up Mike Jacobs, if he’s available, and I already own Jason Kendall in the Writers’ League. If you have one of the other slow starters, don’t panic yet.