By Jesse Severe

League 3

Everyone who is currently getting saves for a Major League team is on someone’s roster today.  So are the top starters.  Everyone has heard of ‘pitch-or-ditch’ or ’sniper starts’, and a few people are picking up backup closers or AAA ‘fireballers-in-waiting’ and holding them.  Is there anything left in the fantasy pitching market?

Last year, I drafted what I thought was a pretty good group of starting pitchers in Mafia League 3.  A couple (Lackey, Beckett) turned out to be all I could have hoped for.  A couple more (Bailey, Zito, Arroyo, Suppan) punched my ERA in the proverbial gut before I could scrub them off my roster.

I also developed an addiction to the saves of Joe Borowski. Yes, you can defend playing Borowski for the saves. I tell my wife I eat ice cream because it is a wonderful source of calcium, too. That doesn’t make it right.

Sometime last August, I met my new best friend: Rafael Betancourt.  For the rest of the season, Betancourt, Troy Percival, and George Sherrill filled in consistently, and my ERA and WHIP dropped like a rock and took me from the middle of the pack to the top.  I ended up taking 58 of 60 possible points in pitching and winning League 3.

Sure, there were other contributors that came through (Putz, Gallardo, and a late-acquired Scott Kazmir come to mind), but the thing I can’t get over is I how dropped Sherrill, Betancourt, and Percival at least once each and always got them back.

Now, I’ll bet all three of my 2007 middle relief specialists got drafted in your league this year, mostly because each leveraged his middle-inning heroics into a better shot at getting saves this year. But there will be more guys on the way that you haven’t thought of yet.

I’m not breaking any new ground here. Using middle relievers in deep daily transaction leagues to pick up Ks and improve ERA and WHIP is not an original insight. Some people even count on vulture wins from their relief staff. What fantasy owners need to realize is, the conventional wisdom on relief pitchers changes more slowly than it does at other positions.

Do you know what Scot Shields’s ERA was last year? 3.86! Not long ago, Shields was supposed to be the elite middle reliever in baseball. Fewer people talk about trends in middle relief than any other position.  Podcasts (other than some, like the excellent FBM Live!) are more about Johan Santana and less about Aaron Heilman. So, for once, you will have to rely on your own research.

Here are five basic principles for picking up middle relievers:

1) Don’t put too much stock in last year’s performance. Keep a short term memory when it comes to middle relief. You don’t have to pick up a guy whose stats will even out over 80 appearances. You want someone who is hot right now.

Sure, Bob Howry has a steady 3.54 career ERA over 11 seasons. But, right now, his ERA is nearly double-digits with only one K. There’s no need to pick him up and wait for it to average out.

2) Don’t chase closers in waiting. Ryan Rowland-Smith, you say? Pick him up right away, you say? Wait a minute. Just because some people think Derrick Turnbow is one bad Bratwurst away from taking Eric Gagne’s ‘gig’ is not a particularly good reason to roster his over-5.00 ERA of the past two years.

Vulture saves and future closer status earn extra brownie points for your middleman candidates. If you focus on these qualities, though, you are missing the point. You are going after Ks, ERA, and WHIP. You are not looking for people with the “makeup” to be closers or just guys backing up the shakiest current closers.

3) Watch manager usage patterns, but don’t chase vulture wins, either. It does matter what inning the manager likes to give your guy the ball, at least if you are hoping for some cheap wins along the way.

Following the first two weeks of MLB boxscores, there have been 97 appearances by a pitcher in the 8th inning or later where the game was tied. These are key situations for vulture wins, since a scoreless inning might well be followed up by a score that leads to a win.

Three pitchers are tied with the most appearances in these situations: Heath Bell, Flash Gordon and Tyler Yates each have three.  You already knew to get Bell and avoid Gordon, but this stat might yield interesting data as the season goes on and it becomes more clear to whom different clubs give these chances.

Vulture wins are unpredictable, and — BE WARNED! — sometimes accompanied by a blown save and a 9.00 or 18.00 ERA for your trouble.  By watching for the guys you like anyway, who might also get the ball in a late-inning tie, you might not need to wait on luck for some cheap wins.

4) Middle relievers are for strikeouts. Sure, Ryan Franklin’s 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP so far in eight appearances floats to the top. But you really don’t have time for 6 2/3 innings on your roster that net only one strikeout.  Add the K/9 stat to your Sporting News player ‘custom view’.  If you don’t see at least eight Ks on your prospective middleman, keep scrolling.

5) You deserve it all. Remember, even in a Mafia league, middle relievers are probably still a buyer’s market. You don’t need to settle for a guy who will give you Ks at the expense of ERA or WHIP. Look for guys who are performing well in all three categories. If you find someone who is getting shots at saves or wins, so much the better. Ride hot streaks and watch for favorable home/road splits.

Throughout the year, I’ll try to identify some of the top-performing middle relievers you want to watch for in the free agent market. Odds are, at least one of them will be available over a weekend when you are between Monday-Thursday hitters and can afford to roster an extra pitcher.  Some (very) early leaders –

Leo Nunez: KC’s eighth-inning guy has 6 Ks, a Win, a 0.00 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP in 4 1/3 innings of work.

Santiago Casilla: 9 Ks in 7 innings with a 0.00 ERA and 0.86 WHIP for Oakland so far.

Roy Corcoran: Not much big-league track record, but with 6 Ks in 4 2/3 innings, a 0.00 ERA, and a 0.86 WHIP, maybe this will turn out to be the Seattle reliever you actually want on your roster.

I know you aren’t listening to me now. You’re thinking you should grab Daniel Cabrera next week because he’s due to finally get it together. But when you’ve “snipered” enough collateral damage to your ERA, and your “sleeper special” Jon Garland has you in last place in strikeouts, c’mon back.  Juan Cruz and I will be waiting for you.