By Butters in D.C.
League 14
League 16
Welcome to the first of what I hope will be a recurring topic here on “The Hit List” – answering your email questions! I’ve actually gotten some questions, so I’ll actually give some answers. But remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, void where prohibited, and this article cannot be reproduced without the express written consent of … well, you get the idea. Let’s see what’s in the mailbag today.
Our first question comes from Chris in Kansas. He writes: “I needed outfield help in a 12 team, 5×5, keeper, and I had extra arms to spare. I got Hunter Pence, but I gave up Justin Verlander - kind of a ‘my problem for your problem’ trade. Did this really help me?”
Long term, I’m going to say ‘yes’. Friday, Pence had his first three hit game of the season, and while he has exactly one steal and zero homers, I have to believe that, with what I saw last year after he was called up to the Bigs, this kid is the real deal. He may not hit the .322 that he did last year, but he should put up a decent average in the high .290’s. He’ll pound out about 25 homers and rip off at least 12-15 steals by the end of the season. Remember, you are getting Pence at ‘zero’, so you don’t have to carry any of the bad stats he has been saddling owners with so far.
Of course, while you don’t have Hunter’s baggage, you do have Verlander’s in this case. I haven’t seen Verlander this year, but, from all reports, he has lost a lot of his control. Well, maybe not lost but certainly misplaced. It always worries me when a pitcher loses control and there is no apparent injury, but it worries me less when the pitcher is as talented as Verlander. After four starts, Verlander has an ERA over seven, no wins, and only fourteen strikeouts in twenty-four innings.
If Verlander stays healthy all year, he would likely make about thirty-two starts, leaving him twenty eight, or about 87% of the season, left. If Pence stays healthy all year, he would likely play around 155 games, leaving him 139, or around 90% of his season, left. If both players start producing at their expected rates, at the same time, Pence gains the time advantage. The sooner Pence starts playing as expected, the greater the difference. I expect Pence to find his stroke sooner than Verlander finds the plate, making this a win for you.
Our next email comes from Tim in Syracuse, NY. Tim asks: “I have Putz, Soriano, and Joe Borowski in a 12 team, non-keeper. NOW WHAT?!?!” Well, fortunately, it’s early in the season, so in the words of my favorite Douglass Adam’s tome - Don’t Panic. I would, however, be concerned. Unless you have Rafael Betancourt, you don’t have a legit back-up closer to choose from with Peter Moylan also going on the DL. This is where we invoke my P&P strategy - patience and pounce.
Nearly one-third of all bullpens have a different closer at the end of the season than at the start. Have the patience to see what else shakes out in the bullpens across MLB, and then pounce on the guys who get the jobs. If you feel like you just can’t wait, grab the most talented guy in the bullpen of an injured closer - they usually wind up with the job, and if they don’t, it’s more unlikely that they hurt your ERA and WHIP. Honestly Tim, I don’t envy your problem, but you can definitely work through it with patience and determination on the waver wire. Good luck, and let me know how you do.
No one gets ‘whacked’ this week (except for maybe Tim’s bad luck) and no one gets made, either. I promise that will all change next week when I unveil my first All-Whack team of the season. This is an open notice to all under-performing Big-Leaguers: if you don’t want to get whacked, then let’s start seeing some return on our investments here. (Especially the guys I have on my teams!)
Is there a player you want on the All-Whacked team? Email me here and let me know. I have room for a few more, I’m sure …