By Bob in Cleveland
League 4
Shock and Awe - Revisited
Did you enjoy Luke Hochevar’s disaster start this past Sunday? Did you break yourself in half to claim him as soon as you learned that the Royals were calling him up to “The Bigs”?
Johnny Cueto, Ian Kennedy, Clay Buchholz, Edinson Volquez, Joba Chamberlain, Dana Eveland, Manny Parra. And I am sure that Clayton Kershaw, or someone like him, is next.
I could go on and on, but the story is always the same. Every year, we flood to the waiver wire, or worse yet, spend an invaluable draft pick, on one of these unproven superstars-in-the-making in a desperate effort to find the next Johan Santana. Such foolhardiness often leads to failure.
Last year, I took a somewhat tongue-in-cheek look at this phenomena. Insert any of the names above, where appropriate, and you’ll come away asking yourself the same question that I always do … why are we so stupid?
”Shock and Awe - 2007″
“The fantasy baseball world is being assaulted right now. If you don’t believe me, just surf the Internet. You’ll be immediately consumed by the psychotic feeding frenzy that is surrounding Tim Lincecum. And before Tim Lincecum, it was Phil (don’t call me Phillip) Hughes.
I’ve been stunned by the utter panic I’ve seen as owners scramble to ‘sell the farm’ in order to secure these prospective studs. I even saw a forum post where one owner was preparing to trade Vladimir Guerrero for Lincecum and, what amounted to, a throw-in. Lincecum merits a 1st round caliber player in trade?!?! Yikes. Way too rich for my blood. I don’t care if he is the next Roger Clemens. Fortunately, that fellow came to his senses in time, bypassed his “man-crush”, and kept Vlad.
Is Tim Lincecum going to be good? His Minor League stats scream a resounding ‘yes’, but does he merit utter panic on the part of the fantasy baseball community as we drive to make him our own? I think that’s a bit questionable.
How many times have we heard our esteemed MLB.com Fantasy 411 ‘advisors’, Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz, urge us to prioritize hitting over pitching at our drafts? They, and other industry experts, maintain that … well, I’ll quote my first article, Calling Pitchers Anonymous, “… pitchers are unreliable. Their performances bounce around too much from year to year. They come with too much injury risk. You can’t count on them. You can’t trust them.” What do we do in response? Most of us follow the ‘script’ and load up on hitting early and draft pitching, especially starters, late.
However, the regular season arrives and a large majority of us throw all of that wise and sound caution to the wind and chase after talent that is, first of all, totally unproven at the Major League level and, second, at a position that largely boasts unreliability to start with … pun intended. Does this pursuit of ‘lightning in a bottle’ usually pay off?
Just for fun, I took a look back at the initial efforts of some readily acknowledged slam dunk starters. As a resource, I consulted the stats section on MLB.com. My thanks to Cory Schwartz and his A+ staff!
How would you like to sell the family jewels for a 6.49 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP? 64 Ks and 54 BBs? Let me introduce you to Johan Santana. In his first year of Major League action, 2000, the “Ace of Aces” only started five games in thirty appearances, and I’d bet, with these stats, did very little to help anyone’s championship run.
Maybe I’m not being fair. After all, Johan did only make five starts in his first taste of Big League action. Roy Halladay, on the other hand, was brought up to make two starts in 1998. He didn’t do too badly, logging a complete game, one win, and a 1.93 ERA. 13 Ks and only 2 BBs, but how was he repaid? He bounced around between the ‘pen and the rotation for three seasons, suffered some injury problems, and didn’t become a full time starter until 2001 - 2002. Not what you planned on if you ran out to grab him in 1998.
Would you move a mountain to secure these stats? A 15.26 ERA with a 2.64 WHIP. 4 Ks with 8 BBs? That’s what you got in 2001 if you charged out after Carlos Zambrano. It was only six appearances, with one start, but, still … a 15.26 ERA?!? Of course, Carlos split his time between the ‘pen and the rotation the following season, and even improved his ERA to a respectable 3.66, but his WHIP still languished at 1.45. He won only four games in sixteen starts with a 93/63 K/BB ratio.
The list can go on and on. Greg Maddux with ERAs of 5.52 and 5.61 in his first two seasons, 1986 and 1987, with an ugly 101/74 K/BB ratio in 1987. Tom Glavine was brought up for nine starts in 1987. He logged a 5.54 ERA, only two wins, and a 20/33 K/BB ratio. He didn’t improve much in his second year, putting up a 84/63 K/BB ratio, a 4.56 ERA and just seven wins. We’re eyeball deep in the best pitching staff of the 90’s, so let’s stay there a little longer to remember John Smoltz’s dozen “gems” in his debut year of 1988. He was brought up for those twelve beauties and handed the Braves a 5.48 ERA, two wins, and a 37/33 K/BB ratio in 64.0 innings. Yuck!
Warping back to the here and now, we’ve seen a number of young hurlers hit the Major Leagues in recent times. Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, and, what seems like, a cast of thousands have shown up to stir us into some manner of lustful madness as we search for the next big ace. The mixture of success that they’ve left us with leaves us with a realization that is inescapable. Engaging in a frenzied chase over young starting pitchers is, at best, a very risky proposition. If we protect our championship chances by drafting “smart”, then we need to do the same thing as we manage our rosters during the season … make “smart” choices.
In summary, I have to make full disclosure. I have claimed Tim Lincecum in one of my leagues. Yes. Label me a hypocrite. I’ve even inquired into securing Phil Hughes at one point. Yovani Gallardo and Homer Bailey are on my radar … as is Adam Miller. Does it make sense? Who’s to say, but just as it may be fun to chase saves (thanks, Mr. Siano), I guess it’s also a little bit fun to chase ‘young guns’. It seems to be the only logical explanation for this madness. After all, we all do want to be the first one to grab the next Rocket or the next Pedro … don’t we?”