By Jesse Severe
League 3
Last year, I remember a caller to a big fantasy baseball show pitching an interesting strategy. The caller announced that he was going to draft a team with no starters. Instead, he planned on grabbing all of the elite middle relievers in the late rounds and competing in wins by taking advantage of the few accidents picked up by guys like Neshek, Okajima, and Shields.
The caller went so far as to add up the win totals of the top few middle relievers from 2006 to show how many vulture wins are lost to the waiver wire. Together, with the ERA and WHIP that middle relievers can put up, he figured on being competitive in pitching. The proposal didn’t go so well with the hosts, but it generated some good discussion.
In case you were wondering, I was not that caller and wouldn’t advocate such a strategy — despite my enthusiasm for 7th inning boxscores. The problem (correctly pointed out at the time by the hosts) is that middle relievers generally do not pitch enough innings to generate enough strikeouts to compete in the category.
And while anyone can pick eight relievers and find sixty wins from last season by reading a baseball offseason stat book in December, rolling Yahtzee on the exact right eight guys in March is darned near impossible.
There is only so much pitching to go around. If you are in a Mafia league, you are in an expert league. No overlooked starters are just lying around. Someone probably drafted Cueto and Eveland. Randy Wolf is long gone. Cliff Lee? Ha! You missed out on that one almost a month ago. I heard someone, a while back, recommending getting Derek Lowe from the waiver wire. You wish!
Pitch or ditch has been rough this year, at least in my league, League 3. I got Scott Baker and stood in line to burn my waiver priority on WHIP-killer Manny Parra. I know it has been rough when Daniel Cabrera and his improving walk rate is starting to tempt me, no matter how many years I’ve been burned by him now.
No, you should not give in to the urge to add the best spot starter still available for tomorrow’s games. Odds are, picking up the best available option will do more damage than good, at least in a Mafia league. Stick with strikeout guys on hot streaks. One or two at a time is plenty.
If you need an outlet for your irresistible urge to update your roster, this is the way to let it out. A middleman Friday through Sunday, and you pick up a fill-in hitter for an off-day on Monday. Do it while watching baseball and listening to FBM Live on Sunday nights!
OK, enough with the sales job. Who’s actually doing the best so far this year?
The data in the above Excel file is extracted from season stats through April 25, 2008. It is a list of all MLB relievers with at least 5 IP, less than a 1.3 WHIP, less than 4 BB/9, more than 8 SO/9, less than 3.5 ERA, and removing all current closers and players with more than one game started. It is sorted by K/9. Since you are in an expert league, I assume big-market names like Marmol, Chamberlain, and Okajima are already gone.
So what do we have in our first small sample of the season?
I’ve mentioned Santiago Casilla already this year. While he can’t keep up a 0.00 ERA the whole way, I love that his last four appearances netted 2, 3, 2, and 2 strikeouts, respectively. Remember, the Coliseum is a pitcher’s park in the 7th, too.
Skinny, 27-year old, rookie Jesse Carlson might eventually turn out to be the fourth best lefty reliever on the Blue Jays (behind Tallet, Downs, and B.J. Ryan), but the ride has been great so far. Particularly of note was his appearance on April 17th, in the top of the 11th. Carlson came in with the bases full of Texas Rangers, and no outs, and struck out the side to strand all three.
Carlson pitched three scoreless extra innings that night until A.J. Burnett blew the game for Toronto in the 14th. I like that John Gibbons has trusted him in three late-inning tie situations already. That save last weekend may not indicate he’s the Jays’ new closer, but it is still an indicator of Gibbons’s trust. Of course, both of the earnies Carlson has given up this year have been on home runs, which may be a warning sign. He’s on my roster to find out.
Of the rest of the list, check out the two Royals: Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez. Next time someone tries to tell you Brian Bannister and Gil Meche will see most of their leads blown by Royal relief, remind them of these two guys — as well as Joakim Soria closing down Kaufmann every night.
In narrow miss also-rans, check out the big lefty Jeremy Affeldt. He led my list until a couple of walks the other night took him just above 4 BB/9 and off my list. He’s not as much of an anomaly as you might think. In 75 appearances last year, as a Colorado Rockie, he gave up only 3 HRs (and only one of those at Coors).
His strikeout rate is up this year, over career averages, but he’s no specialist, with a .211 BAA versus righties last year. While the strand rate this year is a bit high, the former prospect is allowing over a .300 BABIP despite the gaudy numbers — not too much worry about correction with that number. I’m taking a flyer in my league, at least while he stays in the pen. Nice signing, Krivsky.
Also note the list is missing Arizona reliever Juan Cruz, who was drafted ahead of incumbent closer Brandon Lyon in a lot of leagues. Cruz’s ERA and strikeout rate have been good so far, but he has walked 8 already and plunked a batter on top of it. I’m staying away for a while.