By Tony in Hitchin
League 4
League 7
The point of being in a fantasy baseball league, for most of us, is to win. But just as important in a Mafia league is to build a team that will give you as good a chance as possible to win in future years, whether that’s to repeat as champion or to improve your team so as to be better next year. A vital part of the process of constructing that winning team is keeping the right players.
“The Keeper List” is a new series for the Mafia, with a focus upon keepers for 2009 and maybe beyond. The series is loosely based upon the idea of Bracketology used during the build-up to March Madness.
As the season progresses, I’ll be looking at potential keepers, and, as importantly, those players we maybe should no longer be building our teams around.
The articles in this series will not include a strict ranking of players. After all, do you really need to read every couple weeks that Jose Reyes and David Wright are keepers? I think not. Equally, I’m not convinced that you care whether Reyes and Wright are ranked 3rd and 5th in terms of their value or 10th and 20th … they’re both going to be kept by an owner in your league and that’s all that matters. Compiling a strict order for keepers every couple of weeks doesn’t seem like best use of time right now.
What I think is relevant is whether players are performing at such a level that we should consider keeping them for next year - or trading for them. And, on the other hand, we need to identify players whose stock is falling, such that their keeper status becomes questionable.
As an introduction to this series, we’re going to look at the keeper lists submitted by all teams in all Mafia leagues coming into this, the 2008, season. From this point on well be able to track player movement over the coming months.
The groups into which players will be placed as we progress are Definites, Probables and Possibles. The criteria for these initial groups are as follows:
Definites - Kept in 11 or more Mafia leagues coming into 2008
Probables - Kept in between 6 and 10 Mafia leagues coming into 2008
Possibles - Kept in between 1 and 5 Mafia leagues coming into 2008
103 players were kept coming into the 2008 Mafia season.
Definites: 41 hitters, 6 starters and 4 closers
Probables: 11 hitters and 3 starters
Possibles: 20 hitters, 10 starters and 8 closers
Let’s break down these groups, and I’ll offer some early-season observations.
Definites
Hitters - Bobby Abreu, Garrett Atkins, Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder, Curtis Granderson, Vlad Guerrero, Travis Hafner, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Derek Jeter, Carlos Lee, Derrek Lee, Nick Markakis, Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Magglio Ordonez, David Ortiz, Brandon Phillips, Albert Pujols, Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Alex Rios, Brian Roberts, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki, Mark Teixeira, Troy Tulowitzki, BJ Upton, Chase Utley, and David Wright
Starters - Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Brandon Webb
Closers - Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, JJ Putz, and Francisco Rodriguez
There aren’t any surprises in this group. However, there are several players whose “definite” status is currently questionable. These include: Adam Dunn, Travis Hafner, Derek Jeter, Victor Martinez and Troy Tulowitzki.
Probables
Hitters - Eric Byrnes, Robinson Cano, Chone Figgins, Carlos Guillen, Corey Hart, Torii Hunter, Ian Kinsler, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Carlos Pena, and Chris B Young
Starters - Cole Hamels, John Lackey, and Justin Verlander
Closers - None
From this group, Eric Byrnes and Carlos Pena look like they are in danger of slipping down our list, while Joe Mauer isn’t exactly lighting it up, either. Brian McCann looks like one of the top three catchers right now and could well move up, as may Ian Kinsler and Chris B Young.
Possibles
Hitters - Jeff Francouer, Rafael Furcal, Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Gordon, Kenji Johjima, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Howie Kendrick, Paul Konerko, James Loney, Hunter Pence, Juan Pierre, Miguel Tejada, Ryan Theriot, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Rickie Weeks, Vernon Wells, Michael Young, and Ryan Zimmerman
Starters - Clay Buchholz, Roy Halladay, Aaron Harang, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Zambrano
Closers - Joba Chamberlain, Francisco Cordero, Manuel Corpas, Mariano Rivera, Takashi Saito, Huston Street, Jose Valverde, and Billy Wagner
Rafael Furcal looked like a certainty to move up until he was injured, but even then I think he deserves a move into the Probables category. Miguel Tejada isn’t far behind him. It’s a bit early to look at most of the rest of the players in this group in any depth - time will tell whether they’re worthy of keeper consideration.
Andruw Jones, Paul Konerko, Clay Buchholz, Manny Corpas, Francisco Liriano and Roy Oswalt are in real danger of moving off our keeper radars.
New Faces
With the benefit of a little hindsight I’m going to add a fourth category: New Faces.
These are players who weren’t kept in a single Mafia league but are forcing their way into contention for keeper status. As the season progresses, we’ll find out whether these guys are for real.
Hitters - Rick Ankiel, Pat Burrell, Ryan Church, Kosuke Fukudome, Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Casey Kotchman, Nate McLouth, Carlos Quentin, Geovany Soto, and Kevin Youkilis
Starters - Cliff Lee
Closers - None
As of this moment, I think two of these newcomers look like making an immediate jump to “definite” status - Josh Hamilton and Geovany Soto. The likes of Ryan Church, Casey Kotchman, Nate McLouth and Carlos Quentin are almost certain to move up at least one category next time.
Kevin Youkilis? Well, just maybe The Greek God of Walks is the most overlooked player in all of fantasy baseball. Let’s see how he goes before dismissing his inclusion here.
The inclusion of Cliff Lee might raise an eyebrow or two, since his performance, so far, is dividing the fantasy community in two - half believing it to be a fluke and others buying into it. My point is that anyone with his stats right now has to be on this list.
Next time, we’ll update the groups with two months of play on which to base our rankings.