By Gabriel Lundeen

Cappo, League 10

Let’s face it, fantasy baseball owners are a fickle bunch. Sometimes it’s by necessity, sometimes it’s misguided, but most of the time we’re just adapting to an ever-changing landscape, trying to gain an edge in a world of volatility.

We tend to either overhype a young player and create unrealistic expectations he cannot possibly meet or completely write an established star off the moment he has a bad year.

Let’s take a look at this trade, coming out of League 4, involving three players who know what it’s like to be on the bad end of our fickle nature.

THE TRADE

Team Sisteen Choppers would receive the following players:  Gordon, Alex (3B, KC) and Chamberlain, Joba (P, NYA)

Team Tuscaloosa Tempest would receive the following player:  Lee, Derrek (1B, CHN)

Alex Gordon: Alex Gordon may be the perfect example of how fickle fantasy owners can be. He fell short of the insane expectations placed on his shoulders in 2007 and slipped a bit in 2008 drafts as a post-hype sleeper. He still holds great promise, as evidenced by a strong second half last year.

His dual position eligibility is a nice treat, as are the 10-15 steals he’ll toss in along with respectable power numbers. Look for Gordon to have a much-improved 2008, but his real value may still lay in the future. For now, Gordon is a fine option at the corners but not yet elite.

Joba Chamberlain: Joba Chamberlain is a middle reliever until further notice. We don’t know what his value would be like as a starter - would he be lights-out?  Or just another mediocre Yankees starter?  For now, he’s Mariano Rivera’s set-up man and a fine one at that, part of one of the best bullpen tandems in baseball.

I’d put his value on a par with Jonathan Broxton’s, a high-strikeout guy who has a shot at the occassional save. He’s certainly a valuable member of any fantasy team, but his value’s a little inflated based on name recognition. He might be more important to the Yankees’ bullpen than yours, because good middle relievers emerge all year long and Joba would be relatively easy to replace with any number of guys.

Derrek Lee: Lee was hobbled by a wrist injury last year, the kind of malady sometimes requiring only time for full healing. That said, he still swatted 43 doubles in 2007, and as his power returns some of those two-baggers are becoming home runs.

He’ll always hit for a high average, and even steal a few bases, something almost no first baseman attempts. Lee has a skill set that will age better than your typical lumbering first baseman, as well. It’s pretty safe to say Lee’s back to full strength, an elite player who’s a force to be reckoned with. He’s also far and away the best player in this deal.

THE FINAL BREAKDOWN

So, is the difference between Alex Gordon and Derrek Lee equal to Joba Chamberlain? I’d say it’s higher. Lee was drafted as a 3rd rounder, while neither Gordon or Chamberlain likely cracked a single-digit round at all. The fact that Lee is hitting like a superstar these days reinforces this belief, even though Gordon and Chamberlain are both having nice seasons.

We pay premium prices for premium players, and Lee is showing the baseball world why it wasn’t so long ago that he was being drafted as a 1st rounder. Gordon’s a good player, certainly a strong contributor to a team, but he’s not yet reached Derrek Lee’s level as a proven producer, even if he might become that someday.

Perhaps the Sisteen Choppers were trying to sell high on Lee’s incredible start, but they should have aimed higher. Tuscaloosa Tempest wins this trade in a runaway.