By Butters in D.C.

League 14

League 16

I had the pleasure of walking around my favorite city in the country recently, New York City. Specifically, I was in Manhattan, in Times Square, going to get my favorite cookie from the Roxy Deli. I started out at the bottom of Times Square, around 42nd and Broadway, and made my way to the Roxy, which is located at about 47th and Broadway.

Sounds simple right? Well, to navigate my way up those few short blocks, I had to maneuver my way around a street band, between vendors selling roasted nuts that always smell way better than they taste, and through the crush of humanity walking straight for me at every corner.

How does all of this relate to fantasy baseball you ask? Well, I saw it as a metaphor for all of the obstacles we face as fantasy GMs. The street band, the food vendor, and the mass of people each represent an obstacle in the fantasy baseball world.  Follow along, and I’ll tell you what they are and how to avoid them.

I walked down the street, and stopped for a moment to listen to a wonderful street band, Agua Clara, that has been on the same corner in Times Square for as long as I can remember. Many other people, mostly tourists, stood around and enjoyed the unusual music, some totally fascinated by the pipes and unique guitar sounds.

As I watched them, I thought of all of the flashy new rookies that we’ve never seen before. The hitters that we all think will hit .360 with 45 homers and 120 RBI after their July 1 call-up. The pitchers that we think will win 12 games with 175K’s in August and September. I thought of how dangerous it can be to wait and wait on Jay Bruce and Chase Headley. I thought of how agonizing it can be to let your pitching staff fall to ruin waiting for Clayton Kershaw and Homer Bailey. Everyone wants to be the GM to find the next Ryan Braun - the next Francisco Liriano.

While it’s fine to hang onto one of these top flight prospects in a league with a deep bench, it’s something else entirely if you have a small bench or more than one or two rookies-in-waiting.  For instance, I’m hanging onto Homer Bailey in a keeper league with five bench spots because it would be nice to have the pitching help, and I can afford to wait for him because I have Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, Javy Vazquez and Ryan Dempster.

But it is that same depth that has me contemplating releasing Bailey after his two straight poor outings. Could Bailey be the next breakout star? Absolutely. He was one of the most highly touted prospects in all of baseball when he was called up last year, and although he didn’t pitch as well as advertised with an ERA over five and a half, he was also only 21 years old. With another year of experience and being on a roll, he had everything going for him to be an excellent addition to a fantasy staff.

Now, if I find myself with another need that can be filled with Bailey’s roster spot, I make the move. Don’t fall too in love with the rookies, even in a keeper league. Although they are shiny and new, sometimes even as mesmerizing as a Peruvian flute played by a street musician, the roster spot right now can certainly have more value than a player who has no guarantees of getting promoted.

So, I decided to move on from the street band and continue toward my ultimate goal of cookies from the Roxy. I came to the next corner and smelled the most wonderful odor - the smell of freshly roasted nuts punctuated with cinnamon and sugar. So, although I was on my way to my favorite cookie, I bought a bag to munch on. After all, the cookies were to share with my wife.

I watched the man scoop up a mixed helping of peanuts, pecans, and almonds as my mouth began to water. I couldn’t wait to dig in. I grabbed a mouthful and started to eat, but there was something unexpected in the flavor of the nuts. Well, not that there was something unexpected, but there certainly wasn’t something expected. The flavors were flat and the nuts were overly dry. The intense smell that had driven me to buy the nuts was just that - a sweet aroma that had nothing to do with the taste.

If you’ve never had the opportunity to experience this smell, it is intoxicating. It is as intoxicating as, say, the offer for your #3 OF (Johnny Damon, say) for a pitcher with 5 wins, 48K’s in 57 innings, and an ERA of 2.36 with a WHIP of 1.03 as of May 17th. Now, if you need pitching help, that’s a deal you certainly may do. Sounds like a staff ace - until you see that his name is Ryan Dempster. Yes, this fantasy owner is obviously trying to take advantage of Dempster’s hot start to obtain significantly more value than he could have expected to get in the same deal before the season starts … or he thinks he will be able to get in another month or so.

There are a lot more of these types of trade offers that are harder to see. Something like Nate McLouth for Cliff Lee is an example. The Cliff Lee owner could think he was trading his guy on a hot start for another guy on a hot start. Before the season, this deal may have gone through as a fair deal for both sides. If you believe McLouth is really this good (I don’t) and Lee is more the pitcher from 2007 than 2005 (I don’t) then this is a good deal for you.

I would make this deal, but on the side where I get Cliff Lee back. I know - he’s a pitcher, and I hate pitchers, but I’ve seen Lee pitch this year, and I know how much confidence the Indians’ management has in him. It all makes me think that the guy taking the hill every fifth day for the Tribe now is the real Cliff Lee. This McLouth/Lee deal is one example of the thousands that are being offered every day. It’s your job as a fantasy owner to know which ones are the ones that smell better than they taste.

I approached the final street corner before my goal of the cookies and stood waiting for the traffic to pass. I stood at the front of about 30 people and looked across the street at a roughly equal number, all of us wanting to be where the other is and having to get past everyone to do so. The light changed, and each of us moved as one.

This is where a delay in decision, or one wrong move, can cause you to wait behind the woman with the stroller or the family trying to figure out which way to go while standing in the middle of the street. Getting stuck behind these people can cause all 30 people who made different or quicker choices to get ahead of you. Now, when crossing the street, making the right decisions quickly isn’t a big deal, as the stakes are simply to get across the street; but when the stakes are your league title, it doesn’t get any more important.

The first decision of a fantasy season comes with the draft. Strategy, balance, and timing are elements of the draft, but they all continue into the season equally as important as they were that day. When do you make a trade? Who do you cut for the hot hitting middle infielder to replace an injured Mark Ellis? Do you use your #2 waiver priority on Eric Gagne who suddenly became available?

All of these are questions each of us face every day and how and when you answer can make or break your season. I was recently trying to get Adrian Gonzalez in a trade but wouldn’t give up Ichiro to do it. The reasoning was I need help in batting average and there is no one better I could get to help in that category, historically, regardless of how Ichiro is playing at the moment. I believe that Ichiro will break out and that the power spike I would get for Gonzo isn’t worth giving up on the batting average (an exceptionally difficult category to improve in as the season progresses) from Ichiro.

Earlier in the season, I was offered a terrible C.C. Sabathia for Brian McCann, who was performing almost exactly to expectations. Three day before I was offered the trade, Sabathia turned in another awful outing. I decided to wait until his next start in two days before making a decision. The next start was his first gem of the season. Six innings, no runs, WHIP of one and eleven K’s. Done deal.

I needed pitching help, and Sabathia is a guy that I liked going into the season. I needed the pitching more than I needed anything McCann could give me, so I pulled the trigger. Had I declined the trade when it was offered, I would have missed out on C.C. for the rest of the season. This made up for a mistake I made earlier in the season when I thought Jair Jurrjens would be a pitch-or-ditch pitcher and cut him to make room for another player. Well, I’d like to have Jurrjens back now, but at the time I made a bad call.

Perfect timing and quick decisions helped me get the 2007 Cy Young award winner, as well as get me across the street. I got my cookies from the Roxy and enjoyed them until every last crumb was gone. Make good, quick decisions for your fantasy team, avoid owners trying to sell you a player that smells better than he is, and don’t over value rookies in the minors, and you too, can enjoy your cookie for every last crumb - and then raise your flag as league champion.