By Terry Mahoney
Cappo, League 13
One of the most popular storylines in the early season has been the emergence of Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds. He has put up gaudy numbers as one of the few bright spots on a struggling Cincinnati roster. At first, Volquez was overshadowed by the dominance of Johnny Cueto. As Cueto fell off, however, Volquez remained consistent, allowing no one to argue with his performance. Well, maybe no one.
Volquez started his Big League career with the Texas Rangers, signed as an amateur free agent in 2001. As a rookie, Volquez moved awkwardly through the Rangers system. Even as late as 2007, Volquez was starting at High A-Bakersfield, after pitching well at AAA-Oklahoma for a full season in 2006.
He would struggle at Bakersfield to the tune of a 7.31 ERA, eventually finding his way back to Oklahoma after handling hitters well at AA-Frisco. Volquez was ranked as high as 61 in Kevin Goldstein’s top 100 prospects list (Baseball Prospectus).
Looking like an average power pitcher with high upside, the Rangers dealt Volquez in December 2007 to the Reds for CF Josh Hamilton. The deal has worked out for well for both sides. After years of searching, Texas finally has a viable CF. Hamilton leads the majors with 51 RBI, putting up an All Star batting line of .319/.369/.604. Two years after coming back from drug problems, Hamilton is showing why he was once the top prospect in baseball.
In 54.1 IP this season, Volquez is 7-1 with a Major League leading 1.33 ERA and 62 K. He is a fantasy king to say the least; but, as is always the question with fantasy baseball, can he sustain his performance? I think most people would agree that he will not have a 1.33 ERA at the end of 2008, but how far will it actually fall? Is Edinson Volquez worth keeping on your fantasy roster? Let’s take a deeper look into the numbers.
On the positive side, Volquez has done a decent job of mixing his pitches, not relying heavily on a stressful out pitch. His average fastball velocity ranks 11th in the league at 93.1 mph, and he throws it 56.9% of the time. On average, higher velocity pitchers will throw their fastball about 65% of the time. This is a good sign for Volquez.
He throws a solid 82 mph change-up at a 28.2% clip and mixes in a slider and curveball to keep the batter off balance. Volquez has been meticulous in his pitch selection, keeping hitters off balance, and not relying too heavily on one pitch. Volquez has walked at least two batters in every outing this season, for a total of 30 BB. He has also given up 39 hits; not exactly a hit parade, but just there for reference. His WHIP stands at 1.27.
We can look at his peripheral statistics to see what type of year he should be having, to see if it matches up with what he is doing, and if he is overperforming or underperforming. Peripheral statistics are the best way to project how a player will perform going forward because sometimes we get caught up with what a player has already done, while the whole premise of fantasy baseball, and baseball in general, is to see the future.
QuikERA, or QERA, developed by Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver is a good way of checking a pitchers’ ERA. Based solely off K rate, BB rate, and GB/FB ratio, QERA shows us what a pitchers’ ERA should be based on his performance alone. Edinson Volquez’s QERA turns out to be 3.63. While this is still a very good ERA, it is not quite 1.33. If his statistics start looking like his peripherals say they should, his ERA will only rise.
This is a good time to sell high for a proven bat, but an owner should not be admonished for holding onto Volquez. I would take a pitcher with a 3.63 ERA and good K rate any day of the week. If you plan on keeping Volquez, watch that walk rate. If it climbs, you are in serious trouble.