By Gabriel Lundeen

Cappo, League 10

Buying Low and Selling High: A Primer

Buying low and selling high is a basic working principle of any business, and your fantasy team is no different. We talk a lot about buying low and selling high when trading, but what does that actually mean, and how can one be more successful at it? It’s easier said than done, that’s for certain. You can think you bought low or sold high, only to have the exact opposite results.

There are a lot of factors that can determine whether you’re buying or selling, low or high. Your place in the standings, your league’s construction and tendencies, team health, team depth and needs are just a few factors to consider. Here are some words of advice to ponder when considering a “buy low” or “sell high” situation.

1. Know a player’s true worth. Think long-term when you consider a player’s value. Are you dealing with a player who will rebound or continue the pace he’s on? Make sure you’re actually buying low or selling high and have realistic expectations, good or bad. A player can only go so high or so low in most cases.

2. Buy low and sell high with a margin for error. Have a contingency plan if your “buy low” attempt fails. What happens to your team if the deal goes wrong?

3. Move according to need. This one goes without saying, as you should always be trading to most directly answer your team’s needs. If you don’t know why you’re selling or buying, you need to do an honest assessment of your squad and go from there.

4. You don’t always have to sell. As Kenny Rogers might say, “you’ve got to know when to hold ‘em.” Sometimes you’re better off just keeping a player who’s more valuable to your team than as a trade chip. Often, surging pitchers putting up numbers their track record doesn’t support fit this bill. Also, if a guy’s going to create a hole you can’t fill with something equal or better, the “sell high” opportunity may not be the best option.

5. Take calculated risks and be prepared to live with them. It takes contrary thinking to find the right opportunity. Go where others fear to tread if you deem the price right and the risk acceptable. You may have to ferret out your own “buy low” opportunity, because most owners do not want to consciously “sell low,” unless it’s a total dump.

6. Remember that it may take time to see real changes in your roster if you buy low on an underperforming guy. It’s not an instantaneous reaction, and you may have to take a short-term hit to see a long-term gain. If you’re buying super-low and can bench the guy until he gets going, all the better.

7. Consider exchanging your problems for ones that your team can deal with more successfully. A “my problem for yours” trade can work out for both parties. In order to get rid of your problem, you may have to take on someone else’s.

8. Roster churn is good and necessary, but don’t get too caught up in trying to predict the market. Don’t make predicting player performance even harder by taking it to such a microcosmic level.

9. Walk the middle path. Avoid unsustainable extremes. Don’t buy at the absolute highest, and avoid the lowest of lost causes.

10. Trade risk for proven commodities. If you think your hot starter won’t hit 200 RBIs this season, you may want
to consider locking in profits in exchange for something more proven and stable.

11. Look at peripheral stats to see where the trend is going. Stats like contact rate and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for hitters - and batting average against (BAA) and strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) for pitchers can help you look at the reasons why a guy is slumping or surging and examine the likelihood of a change in performance before you take the roto stats at face value.

12. Look beyond the stats. Baseball lends itself well to statistical analysis, but sometimes numbers don’t tell the entire story. Team beat reporters are a great resource, and their work often helps fill out the story outside the diamond. Search news sites, not just baseball or sports-related outlets, for information about the player in question and off-field factors that can influence value and future performance.

13. Don’t be too attached to a guy to deal him, no matter how much he’s done for your team early on. Conversely, don’t be so down on a guy that you’re willing to deal him for pennies, when he might be primed for a recovery.

14. Know the market, and let the market determine if a “buy low” or “sell high” opportunity is right for your team. Knowing what kinds of players a specific owner or a league at large values can be key. Know who’s most marketable on your roster, why, and use this knowledge to maximize your return on that player.

Every fantasy owner knows what it’s like to dump a guy the moment before he gets hot or pick up a guy who stinks up the joint. In 2006, I dropped Justin Morneau a week before he caught fire and went on the streak that eventually won him an MVP award - a single decision that changed the course of my season and contributed to a third place finish.

Do your research, make the best informed decision you can, and cross your fingers that it gets you to first place. The quest for the championship can be a rocky one, but with a few strong calculated moves, and a little luck, you’ll find yourself atop the standings come October.