By Gabriel Lundeen

Cappo, League 10

THE BEST PLAYER IN THE DEAL

You often hear the phrase “best player in the deal” tossed around when we discuss trades, but what does that actually mean? What if you don’t get the best player in the deal? What does “best” even mean, and how do you figure out who’s the best? 

There’s no formula, of course - if there was, I’d win all my leagues and there would be no need for the plethora of podcasts, columns, websites, books and magazines that we all buy and use.  That said, here are some things to consider when asking yourself about the “best player in the deal.”

Throw names out the window.  Names can be deceiving. Players can slide by on reputation alone in fantasy, yet fail to deliver when it counts. Make sure the stats prove that your guy is indeed the best.

Consider ancillary factors as well as skills.  A player’s team can influence success - think of the value of your typical Yankees starter versus a Nationals starter.  Read the news from the team’s beat reporters, as their reports often contain tidbits that won’t come up in any box score.  Yet, these can greatly influence a player’s performance.

If your guy is going through a nasty divorce or a death in the family, maybe baseball isn’t the number one thing on his mind. Baseball players, it must be remembered, are real people facing all the difficulties we deal with in life, and the game we all love must sometimes take a back seat to human matters.

Opportunity is “king” in fantasy baseball. A player’s skill set can astound the world, and yet without a regular job he has no place to show what he can do. This might seem obvious, but you’d be surprised how often this rule gets ignored.

Look deeper than roto stats. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), K/9, VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and Contact Rate are just a few of the many stats out there that can provide a truer picture of what a player might do in the immediate future, as well as why he’s put up the stats he has so far.

Trade with your calculating mind, not your emotional heart. Your favorite player, even if he is the best player in the deal, may be a lousy fit for your team. Ichiro is my favorite player, but if I’m leading the league in steals and average, he’s definitely the wrong player to acquire.

Addressing needs can sometimes trump getting the best player. If giving up the best player in the deal means plugging other holes on your roster or directly answering category needs, by all means leverage that keeper into a rise in the standings. Just make sure the players you get will actually address your team’s needs. No one likes discovering they gave up their superstar for the puu-puu platter.

Going along with addressing statistical needs, address positional needs as well. Five power-hitting first basemen won’t do much for your team in most cases, so you may need to leverage one of those guys into, say, an outfielder of equal value. “Best player in the deal” also means “best player for your roster.” If a star player racks up stats on your bench, does anyone care?

Track record matters. If a guy has done it before, he’s more likely to do it again. For a recent example, look at Jay Bruce, who’s been lighting the world on fire as a rookie and fetching huge trade offers. Would you trade a guy who’s done it for years for a player who’s had an awesome few weeks?

Think in terms of risk versus reward. The more risk you take on, the less likely that your guy will live up to his billing. Sometimes a superstar nursing an injury is worth less than a sure thing.

Going along with risk, look at health. Health is a skill, and if a guy’s been injured before, he’s likely to spend some time on the DL in the future. No one doubts Rich Harden or Ben Sheets’ ability, but their ability to stay in the rotation is highly suspect.

Feel free to choose the pitcher over the hitter. Many have said they almost always take the hitter before the pitcher if faced with a choice between two relatively equal players. Pitchers tend to be a little more volatile, while hitters usually hit, but this is not a steadfast rule.  Sometimes you’re going to need to take the arm, so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on such a trade should it meet your needs. Pitching categories, though often elusive, still make up half of the points in your typical league.

As we see, time and time again, player evaluation is highly subjective. Your “best player” may be the next guy’s waiver wire fodder. Use caution, but don’t be afraid to take a risk, because no fantasy baseball flag has ever been won without a roll of the dice. We all love winning a trade, and hopefully these tips will get you one step closer to your flag flying forever.