By Gabriel Lundeen

Cappo, League 10

We’re all chasing saves on some level. If you’re leading the league, you’re hoarding and building a surplus. If you’re down and out, you’re looking to make up ground by any means necessary. Closers are always a hot commodity, especially as the trade deadline looms over the 2008 fantasy baseball season.

How much should you pay for a few extra saves? What’s a good deal, and how much is too much in the pursuit of a single category? This deal comes out of League 8, so let’s check it out and see who got the best of the trade.

THE TRADE

Black Socks receive Carlos Beltran while Petrograd Soviets receive JD Drew and Salomon Torres

Let’s take a look at the players involved:

Carlos Beltran: Beltran is still a big-time contributor, whose speed/power combination can still carry a fantasy team for stretches during the year. He’s an infuriatingly streaky superstar, but his numbers should be there at the end of the year.  His value falls just a bit, based on injury risk, with a batting average hovering around .270 and decreased stolen bases. New Mets manager Jerry Manuel has stated that he would like Beltran to run more, so perhaps we’ll see a bump in steals from the all-time stealing percentage leader.

JD Drew: Will the real JD Drew please stand up? It’s either the ceiling or the floor with this guy, which is why I tend to stay away from him. Drew has stepped up for the injured David Ortiz in the Red Sox lineup, becoming a nice first-half surprise for those savvy enough to draft him late or rescue him from the waiver wire.

It’s a definite downgrade from Beltran to Drew, but not a huge one. One must expect a regression at some point, so doubling Drew’s stats at the half-way point in the season, and expecting him to hit 32 homers and 106 RBI, might still be a little irresponsible. He’s a valuable asset, nonetheless, and should provide steady production until the end of the season - if he stays healthy.

Salomon Torres: 15 saves and an ERA under 3.00 is nothing to sneeze at, but Torres is, at best, a marginal closer, a guy who’s lost the job before and will probably cough it up again sometime this season. He’s getting the saves right now, so value him as a second or third closer, but the odds are against him keeping the job all year. Eric Gagne’s gigantic paycheck practically guarantees him another crack at the job, so Torres needs to pitch very well in order to retain any fantasy value.

THE FINAL BREAKDOWN

How much should one pay for a few extra saves? An elite closer can be a four category pitcher, but they are few and far between.  Torres certainly does not qualify. Is the downgrade from Beltran to Drew worth getting a closer like Torres? Can Drew keep up his strong season?

Petrograd Soviets takes all the risk in this deal, while Black Socks pick up a keeper-quality player. This is a fair deal, in that value is being exchanged on both sides, but Beltran is clearly the best player in the deal, carries the most certainty (despite some risk) and has the added bonus of excellent keeper value.

Black Socks wins this trade hands-down. To turn a late-round spec play and a marginal closer into Carlos Beltran is the very definition of selling high and cashing in your profits. Beltran has been on fire as of late and looks poised for a strong second half, while Drew’s production might not be sustainable and Torres might not hang onto his job in Milwaukee.