By Tony in Hitchin
League 4
League 7
The aim of “The Keeper List” is to monitor potential keepers over the course of the 2008 season … and to save you from building your 2009 team around the wrong names.
Now we’re at the halfway point of the season, and with some owners who consider their teams without a shot at a title this year, a greater focus is already being placed upon keepers for 2009.
We’re still grouping players … rather than ranking them more precisely. At season’s end, a strict ranking may become more relevant and the panel for compiling those rankings has been proposed.
There are some major changes to the groupings this time, so read carefully. I’ve added a comment wherever a player has moved up or down.
Definites
Hitters
Garrett Atkins, Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder, Curtis Granderson, Vlad Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday, Ryan Howard, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Lee, Derrek Lee, Nick Markakis, Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Magglio Ordonez, David Ortiz, Brandon Phillips, Albert Pujols, Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Alex Rios, Brian Roberts, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmy Rollins, Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki, Mark Teixeira, BJ Upton, Chase Utley, David Wright.
Starters
Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb
Closers
Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez
No surprise to see Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler elevated to Definite status. If you can think of a reason why these two won’t be kept in every single Mafia league, let me know - you’re a better man that I if you can think of one.
Probables
Hitters
Bobby Abreu, Chone Figgins, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Guillen, Corey Hart, Torii Hunter, Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Nate McLouth, Geovany Soto, Chris B Young
Starters
Cole Hamels, John Lackey, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander
Closers - None
I’m moving Bobby Abreu down from a Definite to a Probable right now. He does lots of things really well, and as the number 3 hitter in the Yankees’ lineup, you have to love him there, but I think the move is warranted. And it’s for a similar reason that I’m demoting Jeter - once great, now … not so much.
Adrian Gonzalez nearly got all the way to a Definite, but, for now, the one slot promotion is, I think, reasonable. Don’t rule out another jump for him before the season is out, though.
Nate McLouth nearly didn’t have a starting job in the spring, and now look at him. If he keeps this up, he’ll be a keeper for sure. For now, he’s a Probable.
Geovany Soto had to be moved up to a Probable. I know some of us don’t like to invest heavily in a catcher, but this guy is really good and deserves to be in the same category as McCann and Mauer.
Tim Lincecum? Who doesn’t love this guy? His occasional struggles can mostly be put down to his youth, but when you look at his record, remember which team he plays on and wonder what those numbers might look like on a better team.
Possibles
Hitters
Rick Ankiel, Jason Bay, Jay Bruce, Pat Burrell, Eric Byrnes, Robinson Cano, Ryan Church, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kusoke Fukudome, Rafael Furcal, Alex Gordon, Conor Jackson, Kenji Johjima, Chipper Jones, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, Paul Konerko, Casey Kotchman, James Loney, Carlos Pena, Hunter Pence, Juan Pierre, Carlos Quentin, Mark Reynolds Miguel Tejada, Ryan Theriot, Troy Tulowitzki, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Rickie Weeks, Vernon Wells, Kevin Youkilis, Michael Young, Ryan Zimmerman
Starters
Clay Buchholz, Joba Chamberlain, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez, Scott Kazmir, Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano
Closers
Francisco Cordero, Mariano Rivera, Takashi Saito, Huston Street, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner
Eric Byrnes is being dropped in non-keeper leagues, and it doesn’t surprise me. I’d think very carefully before slotting him as a keeper for 2009 right now … hence the drop to Possible here.
Robinson Cano is a favorite player of mine, and it pains me to move him down to Possible. But the power isn’t there, and only a Cano-like second half, which many indeed predict, will keep him on our list. If he ever hits in the first half, he could win a batting title … and might be a seventh round draft pick while doing so.
Carlos Pena gets booted down to a Possible. Nice power, but nothing like what he displayed in 2007. Not keeper-worthy, in all likelihood.
Troy Tulowitzki gets bumped down, too. Mostly injury-related, admittedly, and he might have enough time to pick things up.
JJ Putz gets booted down from Definite to Possible - Wow! - mostly for reasons of injury. I think if you’re going to keep a closer, there are better options right now. The days of being drafted in the fourth and fifth rounds could well be a thing of the past, and he might be moved further down next time, too.
New Faces
All players new to our keeper radar will first appear in this section.
Hitters - JD Drew, JJ Hardy, Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia
Starters - None
Closers - Brad Lidge, Joakim Soria
Call me crazy for including Drew, but his numbers in the last few weeks are very real. If he keeps it up, and avoids injury, someone will give him a shot as a keeper … and if he falls, well we can cut him from this list easily enough.
One member of League 9 and I talk daily about JJ Hardy. We both picked him up mid-June, and, frankly, he’s been on fire since then (although neither of us wishes to assume any credit for this.) Shortstop is still a fairly weak position, and the sort of production you can get from Hardy means he needs to be mentioned … at least in passing.
Longoria has to be here. It’s a tiny sample size, of course, but he’s got plenty of people thinking about his long term potential already.
Dustin Pedroia deserves a mention here, as well. It has nothing to do with his All-Star appearance - heck, he could be hitting .117 and the Red Sox faithful would still vote him in. No. He’s here on merit, despite being overlooked by many when it comes to second basemen. I doubt he’ll be a keeper for 2009, but I’m not totally ruling it out yet.
As for Lidge and Soria, if you’re going to keep a Closer, you have to consider these two. Since they play on teams at the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of likely success in 2008, their numbers are remarkably similar.
Dropped Out
Jeff Francouer - When a hitter gets sent down, we can’t realistically include him in a list of potential keepers for the following season.
Travis Hafner - I don’t see how anyone can consider keeping Hafner for 2009. He needs a monumental second half in order to return to our list.
Andruw Jones - Same story as for Hafner … only doubly so.
Aaron Harang - Another one who we simply can’t justify keeping on the list right now.
Francisco Liriano - Might be great in the second half … and might not. It’s far too early to be thinking of him in keeper terms.
Clayton Kershaw - Made a brief appearance in the Majors and on this list. A future star, of that I’m convinced, but his time isn’t quite now.
Roy Oswalt - Anyone drafting this guy in the first five rounds in 2009 will have their Mafia membership revoked.
Manuel Corpas - We don’t keep middle relievers, and that’s what he is.