By Jesse Severe

League 3

You’re a Big-League manager. It’s the 8th inning, and the game is tied. Your starter has an icepack on his right arm, and the game is up to the bullpen. Who do you send in to pitch?

The quirky reality of the Major League rule for awarding wins to a pitcher is that the pitcher who happens to come in to pitch the frame before the team offense gets the lead is credited with a win. Under this rule, Eric Gagne gets a win for blowing a lead … then taking a seat and waiting on a Ryan Braun home run to retake the lead and give the Brewers a 9th inning walk-off win.

A month ago, I warned against counting on relievers as a reliable source of wins. Still, from a fantasy perspective, it is worth paying attention to what happens in the late innings. If you need a shot at wins, with minimal risk to ERA and WHIP, a few middle relievers might offer some help.

Some managers put their best pitcher in, when the game is on the line, such as late-inning ties. Other managers have situational pitchers according to the game circumstances. From a fantasy standpoint, pitchers who have a high incidence of appearing in the 8th inning or later have a good chance of getting a win if the ball game is close or tied. All that pitchers need to do to succeed in this situation is to limit the opposing team’s runs and hope that their team scores one run the next time up.

Looking through boxscores of games played in MLB this year, through the first 65 games, there had been 542 total appearances by pitchers in the 8th inning or later where the game was tied. This does not count appearances where the pitcher was already in the game during the 7th inning. Some pitchers, either because their team plays in close games, or because their managers have situational pitchers in the late innings, seem to gravitate toward these types of opportunities.

For example, in a late-inning tie, there is no question if you are Bud Black. You throw out Heath Bell. Bell is a leader in late-inning leverage appearances. Also, Petco Park itself helps by being a pitcher-friendly park … which result in low-scoring games.

Still, Bell is in the right place for those rare occasions when the Padres’ offense pulls out a late win. His six vulture wins can attest to both his manager Bud Black’s usage pattern and the quality of the offense of the team he plays for. Besides wins, Bell’s ERA and WHIP are satisfactory, but his 7.71 K/9 is just a hair below what I would normally recommend.

Josh Grabow has been a favorite of mine all season. He also scores high for getting the ball when the Pirates have a game on the line. If the Pirate brain-trust tries to get a return in trade for Damaso Marte’s saves, Grabow might even emerge as competition for Matt Capps in the 9th … eventually. In the meantime, Grabow’s strikeout rate and ratios are acceptable, if no longer as outstanding, as they had been in May and June.

As a final word, the trading deadline in both real and fantasy baseball is near. When you are working the wire for pitching help, be sure to watch out for the relievers who go to new teams. If a closer goes to work the eighth inning for a contender (and subsequently is dropped in your league), have a look at the ratios to see if it might be worth picking him up. Jon Rauch and Joakim Soria, for example, are worth holding as middle relievers - if they become available.