By Mike Thomas
League 13
Some trades look pretty good when you focus on the names, but how do they look when you examine the numbers? Let’s look at this trade from League 8 …
Our reader, call them Team One, needing HRs, RBIs, and Runs, is pretty strong in everything but wins. They seek our advice as they receive Prince Fielder (1B, MIL) and Hunter Pence (OF, HOU). In return, they had to trade Johan Santana (P, NYN) to Team Two.
Since Team One is in 11th place, the owner is looking at keepers for next year and has asked what we think of this deal … and whether both of these players are “List of 5″ keeper candidates for 2009. Their current keeper list includes Hamels, Victorino, Soriano, and Atkins.
The issue is not with Fielder, who, after a rough adjustment to his new, meatless existence, has returned to his bashing ways of past years. He is back on pace to hit 35 - 40 HRs, drive in 100, and score somewhere near 90 Runs. That certainly adds to Team One’s category needs.
The real question is which version of Pence did Team One get: the one from 2007 … or the one from 2008? Last year, the ‘Golden Boy’ of the Houston minor league system delivered, as advertised, despite being slowed by a wrist fracture in late July (.322-16-69-11SB in 456 AB).
Coming into this season, fantasy owners were salivating over a potential .300-30-100-20 SB player. What they have gotten is an inconsistent and frustrating performance from Pence. Pence has been either smoking hot or icy cold this year, and more often it is the latter.
The line drives of last year (19%) have been replaced by fly balls (32% in 2007 and 37% in 2008). Combine that with league average power this year, and you get a lot of fly ball outs and a depressed BA. (.322 in 2007 and .277 in 2008).
One area where Pence has been consistent is in speed. He has been consistently NOT stealing this year. Most publications projected Pence with anywhere from 20 - 28 SBs in 2008. He presently has seven. To be sure, not getting on base (.359 versus .316) is a serious impediment to stealing bases, but Pence is simply not running the way he did last year … or in his year plus minor league career.
The real value of the trade is getting Pence going forward as a keeper after he has, hopefully, adjusted to the problems of this year. But Team One already has six potential keepers, so the way to make this trade a winner is to try and trade up with two of those six.
Can Team One combine Atkins (or Soriano) with Pence (or Victorino) and trade up at 3B, OF, or get an elite SS or 2B? That would change this trade from a good one to a great one.