By Kelly Pfleiger
League 13
A Close Look at BABIP
Each and every game, the baseball is hit, and it travels to some destination on the field. Sometimes it is caught for an out; other times it falls to the ground for a base hit. Often, what determines a hit or an out is a matter of inches.
Along with other significant factors, ‘Batting Average on Balls in Play’ will affect a batter’s average, and conversely, a pitchers ERA. In recent years, BABIP has grown in prominence within the fantasy baseball world, but not everyone uses it properly.
As I have stated previously, the sum of all the parts tells the true story of a player’s performance.
The official definition of the stat varies, but the following is a solid one:
Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula used is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF).
The premise of the BABIP stat is based on what happens to the ball once it is put in play. Determining whether a hitter has been unfortunate (low BABIP) or fortunate (high BABIP) can only be measured against the league average … which tends to be around .290 to .300.
Players who generally have excessively low (or high) BABIP will generally regress to the league average over the course of the season. Some anomalies will occur, however. For example, Ichiro will have a higher BABIP since he has a ton of speed. The opposite is also true, as catchers will often have lower BABIP numbers.
Below are the top 15 offensive players with the lowest BABIP (Min 200 PA). The average BABIP for the qualified players (287) is .305.
|
Name |
Team |
BB% |
K% |
AVG |
OPS |
BABIP |
| Corey Patterson | Reds |
3.60% |
13.40% |
0.194 |
0.566 |
0.193 |
| Omar Vizquel | Giants |
7.50% |
12.00% |
0.179 |
0.451 |
0.204 |
| Kenji Johjima | Mariners |
3.50% |
9.30% |
0.211 |
0.546 |
0.224 |
| Eric Byrnes | Diamondbacks |
7.20% |
17.50% |
0.209 |
0.641 |
0.226 |
| Paul Konerko | White Sox |
11.40% |
19.90% |
0.212 |
0.665 |
0.233 |
| Ronnie Belliard | Nationals |
13.30% |
20.00% |
0.231 |
0.799 |
0.240 |
| Carlos Ruiz | Phillies |
10.40% |
13.80% |
0.214 |
0.584 |
0.241 |
| Andruw Jones | Dodgers |
11.60% |
36.70% |
0.161 |
0.501 |
0.242 |
| Cesar Izturis | Cardinals |
7.60% |
6.70% |
0.231 |
0.589 |
0.245 |
| Jose Vidro | Mariners |
5.50% |
11.70% |
0.234 |
0.612 |
0.245 |
| Adam Dunn | Reds |
18.40% |
32.00% |
0.237 |
0.929 |
0.248 |
| Joe Crede | White Sox |
8.60% |
13.90% |
0.255 |
0.797 |
0.248 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | Reds |
10.40% |
17.50% |
0.248 |
0.815 |
0.249 |
| Mark Ellis | Athletics |
11.00% |
13.60% |
0.236 |
0.700 |
0.250 |
| Gregg Zaun | Blue Jays |
14.20% |
12.80% |
0.239 |
0.712 |
0.252 |
Many of the players that are listed here are most likely on your waiver wire, but there are some significant ones listed as well. At the top of the list, Corey Patterson is the most intriguing player.
As I stated earlier, players with speed tend to have inflated BABIP numbers. However, Patterson has managed to post the worst BABIP number of the qualified players. Most likely a natural regression to the mean will occur, which could make Patterson an extremely valuable player over the last two months of the season.
Generally speaking, players with a decent contact rate, combined with a low BABIP, do not end up with suppressed batting averages for the season.
Another player of interest is Adam Dunn. Everyone expected Dunn’s batting average to be a drag; however, I do not think anyone anticipated a .237 at this point in the season. This is a classic case of how a batting average is suppressed by a low contact rate (68%) in conjunction with a low BABIP (.248).
By way of example, if Adam Dunn actually had a contact rate of 78% (which is still not great) combined with his current BABIP, his batting average would be a more palatable .266.
Just as BABIP can tell us who might have better numbers over the course of the rest of the season, it can also shed light on who might struggle as well.
Below are the top 15 offensive players with the highest BABIP (Min 200 PA). The average BABIP for the qualified players (287) is .305.
|
Name |
Team |
BB% |
K% |
AVG |
OPS |
BABIP |
| Howie Kendrick | Angels |
3.80% |
18.70% |
0.331 |
0.836 |
0.398 |
| Jerry Hairston | Reds |
6.80% |
13.50% |
0.344 |
0.875 |
0.390 |
| Milton Bradley | Rangers |
17.30% |
27.10% |
0.320 |
1.037 |
0.387 |
| Chipper Jones | Braves |
15.70% |
13.60% |
0.369 |
1.062 |
0.387 |
| Ramon Vazquez | Rangers |
10.50% |
20.50% |
0.322 |
0.881 |
0.386 |
| Matt Kemp | Dodgers |
7.80% |
28.30% |
0.295 |
0.819 |
0.384 |
| Matt Holliday | Rockies |
11.90% |
18.50% |
0.346 |
1.023 |
0.382 |
| Mike Aviles | Royals |
3.60% |
15.00% |
0.338 |
0.908 |
0.374 |
| Kelly Shoppach | Indians |
6.60% |
34.10% |
0.280 |
0.881 |
0.372 |
| Xavier Nady | Yankees |
7.00% |
16.80% |
0.336 |
0.957 |
0.368 |
| Ryan Church | Mets |
8.50% |
24.40% |
0.307 |
0.882 |
0.366 |
| Fred Lewis | Giants |
10.20% |
27.00% |
0.278 |
0.794 |
0.365 |
| Lance Berkman | Astros |
14.50% |
18.50% |
0.333 |
1.037 |
0.365 |
| Ryan Doumit | Pirates |
5.10% |
13.70% |
0.339 |
0.937 |
0.361 |
| Ryan Spilborghs | Rockies |
15.90% |
18.40% |
0.314 |
0.917 |
0.359 |
Most of the players that are listed here have decent overall speed and can support these numbers over the course of the season. Additionally, pure hitters like Matt Holliday, Chipper Jones, and Lance Berkman have posted higher then league average BABIP numbers every year.
As with Adam Dunn, the players that should cause concern for an owner are the ones with a low contact rate. Generally speaking, a low contact rate, paired with a high BABIP, will usually be the clearest indication of a regression coming over the balance of the season.
Milton Bradley’s numbers are a cause for concern, but no one may be more susceptible to a regression over the rest of the season than Kelly Shoppach. Like Adam Dunn, Shoppach is supporting his batting average with an anemic 66% contact rate. Unlike Dunn, however, Shoppach has a BABIP number that is .124 higher, thus creating an inflated batting average.
Another factor is that Shoppach has only 237 plate appearances, while Adam Dunn has 439 this season. Fewer plate appearances can cause significant fluctuations in batting average. So, the odds are against Kelly Shoppach maintaining his current batting average over the balance of the season.
Batting Average on Balls in Play is a solid stat, and you could constantly look at it throughout the season. However, ensure that other stats are looked at in conjunction with BABIP … as the sum of the parts equals the whole.
In my next installment, I will look at BABIP from the pitcher’s perspective.
Kelly Pfleiger is a regular contributor at http://www.fantasybaseballmafia.com/. He
also runs a fantasy baseball blog at http://www.fantasygameday.net/Contact Kelly Pfleiger at winabango@fantasygameday.net