By Dan in Los Angeles

League 19

Let’s play a game.  Which one of these is not like the others: .282, .306, .286, .247, .292.  If you were one of the unlucky managers who drafted Jason Bay as your top outfielder for the 2007 fantasy baseball season, you may already know that those are the batting averages for Bay in his first five full major league seasons … the last of which represents his combined average from his time with the Pirates and Red Sox this year.

After winning the 2004 National League Rookie of the Year award with a .282 average, 26 home runs, and 82 RBIs in just 120 games, Jason Bay had breakout years in 2005 and 2006.  Back-to-back seasons with 30-plus home runs and over 100 RBIs made him a bonafide fantasy stud outfielder.  He even stole 32 bases over those two seasons, further adding to his value as a top outfielder on any fantasy roster.

Then came 2007 … when Bay regressed and left many fantasy owners burned by his drop-offs in homers and steals (down to 21 and 4, respectively) but even more by his category-killing .247 batting average.  This was a good forty points below his career numbers.

Heading into the 2008 season, it was difficult to say whether Bay’s 2007 numbers represented a decline that would continue or whether he had just posted a bad season.  One thing was certain, though.  His perceived fantasy value dropped off significantly, and he went from a sure ‘top-30′ fantasy contributor to a sixth round (or later) gamble for a comeback campaign.  It wasn’t unusual to see Bay and Andruw Jones drafted merely a few picks apart in a 2008 fantasy baseball drafts, and you have to cringe, now, when you think about that.

So, now we’re just over a month away from the conclusion of the 2008 season, and while Andruw Jones looks as if he’s had more “In-and-Out” burgers than home runs in Los Angeles this season, Jason Bay is on pace to finish the year with numbers we would fully expect from … well … a pre-2007 Jason Bay.

At the time of this writing, Bay has 26 home runs and 82 RBIs, which are the exact same power totals he posted in his 120 game rookie campaign.  His new team, the Red Sox, still have 22 games remaining this season, and if you project Bay’s numbers to year’s end, you’ll notice that he’s on pace for just over 30 homers and 100 runs and just under 100 RBIs.  He’s also got 10 steals (in 10 chances), so you could probably expect a few more from him as the season draws to a close.

It’s certainly a nice bounce-back season, but does this mean that Jason Bay is back to being a number-one outfielder and worth keeping in your league?  Well, a lot of that depends on whether or not you’re willing to write off his 2007 as a fluke or not.  Everything about Jason Bay’s career numbers indicate that he’s a savvy hitter who draws a lot of walks but also strikes out a lot, and while it’s not unusual to see hitters like that post low batting averages (see Dunn, Adam), Bay has hit in the .270 to .300 range at every level … in every season except 2007.

It’s a remarkable record of consistency, and I think if you asked most baseball players, they’d be ecstatic to have Bay’s numbers as they approached the age of thirty, even including his 2007 stats.  Hey!  He still hit 21 home runs and drove in 84 runs last year, so let’s not make it sound like he completely vanished off the fantasy radar!

Bay is the kind of hitter that warrants serious keeper consideration, but prior to a few weeks ago, I still would’ve been torn about his keeper status.  It’s amazing what a difference six-hundred miles can make.  Bay joining a potent Red Sox lineup really cements him as a great keeper as you look toward 2009.

Though Manny Ramirez’s white-hot hitting with the Dodgers garnered a lot of headlines, Bay’s solid contribution to Boston’s acclaimed offense can’t be ignored. Through 21 games with his new club, Bay has hit .333 with 4 home runs, 18 RBIs, 20 runs scored, and 3 steals.  His approach seems ideal for the Red Sox lineup, and you have to think it will only further help him in 2009 when he has a healthy Mike Lowell hitting behind him … instead of Jed Lowrie.

I think another .300, 30 home run, 100 RBI season is in the cards for him in 2009, and 10-15 steals seem likely as well. With outfield lacking the depth it had in previous years, it’s hard to see Bay making it past the third round in most 2009 non-keeper fantasy baseball drafts, so unless your team is dripping with keeper talent, he should really be on your 2009 roster.

But, if the memories of 2007 still haunt you, and you can’t bring yourself to place him on your keeper list, then you should definitely look to trade him to a believer. At the end of this season, I don’t think you’ll have any trouble finding someone who wants him.