By Chris from Maine

With the 2008 fantasy baseball season winding down, many managers are focusing on wrapping up their rotisserie leagues, while others are prepping their rosters for head-to-head league playoffs. For owners in keeper leagues, this is when the heavy duty research and big decision making processes need to begin in order to select the handful of players for their 2009 rosters.

Injuries can - and will - make a huge difference in which players are chosen to be carried forward beyond this season. Draft strategies for next year’s leagues will ultimately be carried out depending on which players are unavailable due to their keeper status.

How Do I Decide Who to Keep?

Before making any decisions on who you want to keep, you should begin by eliminating all of the players who you do not want to keep. This seems simple enough, but when you take into account all of the various factors, i.e. league setup, categories, head-to-head versus rotisserie, AL-only, NL-only, roster setup, points-based leagues, salary cap and contract lengths (if applicable), position scarcity, personal feelings, etc. - the task is not always so straightforward. Plus, you have to look at the other teams in the league and who they are planning to carry into the next season.

A good rule of thumb is to narrow it down to your top 2-3 position players and top 2-3 pitchers (or more, depending on how many players you can keep) and then decide if you want to go pitching-heavy or position player-heavy.

I Have Narrowed it Down … Now What?

Your keepers, above all else, should not have major injuries. If any of your top 4-6 players, from above, have major injury questions heading into 2009, you may have to eliminate them. Let someone else draft them for next year. Who knows, maybe they will fall in the draft for a value pick or perhaps even go undrafted! If you are in the unenviable position of having a bunch of your top players with an injury history (or are coming off a major injury), you may have to select your keepers by using the “lesser of evils” approach.

In general (there are always exceptions), I would only consider keeping a player who is recovering from an injury or surgery when he is nearly certain of playing in Spring Training … or in the first two months of the season. Remember, these are your keepers and are the players who are going to carry you when your fringe players are struggling, at times, throughout the season. Though it is a long baseball season, it is imperative to get off to a good start.

What is Considered to be a Major Injury?

This is not always a clear-cut area, as some minor injuries can be nagging and occur over and over again. For the most part, surgical cases can be considered more serious - especially reconstruction of a ligament or repair of muscle, cartilage, or tendon.

Ulnar Collateral Ligament reconstruction at the elbow or Anterior Cruciate Ligament reconstruction of the knee is serious business. In addition, Rotator Cuff repair, Achilles Tendon repair, or Labrum repair of the shoulder or hip are also big deals. This is but a small sample of some of the surgeries that are to be considered more on the “major” side of things.

Surgery performed on a pitcher should always be a huge deterrent, unless it is a more simple procedure such as a debridement of a tendon, chondroplasty of the knee, or an Acromioplasty of the shoulder that occurs without the need for a rotator cuff repair.

Does Timing Matter?

Yes. Sometimes the timing of which the injury and/or surgery takes place is just as important to your decision as which surgery is actually performed. This is especially true with players you feel may miss out on Spring Training or the early months of the season. These are usually the players that drop down draft sheets and could be taken ‘on the cheap’ late in drafts … or end up on the free agent list to start the year.

An example would be if a player undergoes Tommy John surgery in the second half of the previous season. The recovery time is usually about nine months to one year in order to return to pitching, though pitchers often take closer to two years to be highly effective.

Take Chris Carpenter, who had surgery late in 2007 and came back in the latter half of 2008. He pitched in just two games before falling victim to a shoulder strain. Knowing this, you could easily make the decision that he was not the best keeper candidate for 2008. Carpenter went undrafted in most mixed leagues and rightly so (in NL-only leagues, with deep benches or more DL spots, he was likely drafted).

What Else Should I Consider?

I typically recommend avoiding players who seem to constantly come down with nagging injuries - even if they have top-shelf abilities. Players like Chipper Jones, Rich Harden, Kerry Wood, etc. have keeper talent but are not great keepers. They are awesome players to own - when they are in the lineup and healthy, but I would rather take my chances with owning a slightly less talented player without the lengthy injury report.

Who Should I Avoid in 2009?

Not yet, folks. You’ll have to stop back tomorrow. Then, I’ll give you my take on who should or shouldn’t grace your keeper lists for next season. See you then!