By Chris from Maine

Hello again! Let’s get to business. Who should we avoid in 2009? Who should we keep?

For the purposes of this article, I will focus on some players who I would be cautious of as keepers in mixed leagues for 2009. As I said yesterday, there are always exceptions, especially depending on your particular league setup or roster situations, so please make sure you consider every angle and do not take this as a definitive guide for success!

This list is not all-inclusive, but it will give you advice on some players who shouldn’t - and could -be considered as keepers.

Chipper Jones, 3B: You have to have a very dinged-up, or poor, team to consider Chipper as a keeper in mixed leagues. A big part of keeper leagues, especially in leagues where you can only keep one or two players, is to make sure they are “money in the bank.” Chipper falls into the “constant nagging injury” category, and I would not suggest using a valuable keeper spot on.

Roy Oswalt, SP: The injury questions are mounting for Oswalt, as he has dealt with several incidents of hip strains, as well as an early season biceps strain. Some people have drawn the conclusion that his recurring hip problems are due to a back condition. The Astros aren’t any good, and his win totals are going to suffer. He’s not getting any younger, and his career innings totals are starting to pile up. I’d still draft him, but he’s not a keeper anymore.

Travis Hafner, 1B: It’s no longer 2006, and Hafner’s shoulder is clearly in a bad way. After resting and rehabbing for months and months this season, he has gone on a brief rehab assignment and thus far has had continued soreness in the affected shoulder. Does it sound like this situation is improving? He will be available to be drafted quite late in most drafts in ‘09. Pass.

Billy Wagner, RP: The Wagner saga continues to drag on, and all signs point to an elbow issue that could be more serious than the Mets are letting on. I am not a huge fan of keeping closers (unless you are talking about Papelbon or K-Rod), so you should avoid keeping Wagner and just plan on drafting from the best available next year. There are going to be plenty of new closers in place across the league next year (possibly Heath Bell, Manny Corpas, and Jon Rauch - to name only a few).

Ben Sheets, SP: I know. I know. He is having a tremendous season and a relatively healthy one at that. I simply cannot say the name “Ben Sheets” and convince myself that he is not a ticking time bomb. I would only keep him if my other potential keepers also had some injury concerns. He is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward pitcher. He is a frontline talent that usually slips a bit in redraft leagues due to his notorious injury history, so you could pass on keeping him and probably still target him in the draft.

Dustin McGowan, SP: Dripping with potential, McGowan and his ‘09 season should probably be passed up in favor of more promising, healthy starters. There was good news when Dr. Kremchek stated that McGowan’s rotator cuff did not need to be repaired - a situation that would have certainly sidelined him well past midseason … if not for the entire ‘09 season. Players coming back from labrum repairs can be tough to gauge, since the recovery time can be 9-12 months, but I would hedge my bets and try to snap him up late in drafts.

Tim Hudson, SP: He is going to miss most, if not all, of the 2009 season following Tommy John surgery, so you can safely pass on keeping Hudson. His days as a frontline starter were over anyhow, regardless of the injury. Let someone else gamble on his name status, if they feel the need.

Don’t Fear … Players I Wouldn’t Mind Keeping

Victor Martinez, C: The in-season elbow surgery and his nagging hamstring strains will be a thing of the past by Spring Training, if not by the start of September ‘08. The Indians are pleased with Kelly Shoppach behind the plate, so a position change to first base seems very possible and probably is likely. This is a huge positive for V-Mart, as his injury risk would be lowered by the move. He will be catcher-eligible next season, as well, so he is perhaps one of the better keepers for ‘09 due to his multi-position eligibility and the scarcity at catcher.

Tim Lincecum, SP: While all pitchers have more injury risk due to the nature of the pitching motion, and sheer volume and frequency of throwing, I would not shy away from keeping Lincecum. Some people have talked about his small physical stature as being a reason for him being an injury risk, but his mechanics are awfully reproducible. He has a nice, fluid motion throughout (unlike B.J. Ryan who has many abrupt stop/starts at various phases of his pitching motion). It is not often that you get to keep a young starting pitcher with potential for 10-12 K/9.

Carlos Lee, OF: El Caballo will be just fine following his broken hand. There will be no lasting effects from his season-ending injury. As far as keepers go, he is a sure bet to knock in 100-110 runs with 30+ HR.

Evan Longoria, 3B: Here is a player who could challenge A-Rod in a couple of years as the best third baseman in baseball. While many managers will fear the sophomore slump, his superstar-level talent is glaringly evident, and his fractured wrist is healing well. This is not another Alex Gordon. Keep Longoria and enjoy a Top-4 third baseman next season, so long as he cuts down on his strikeouts and shows better patience - which he likely will.

David Ortiz, 1B: If he can make it through the rest of the ‘08 season without setbacks in his left wrist, I would expect him to bounce back in ‘09 fully healthy and ready to return to a .290-.300 hitter with 35-40 HR power. You simply can’t pass up on a healthy Papi for your keeper roster.

Carl Crawford, OF: The surgery on his right hand will allow him to return to full function well in advance of the ‘09 season. Since his value resides in his ability to swipe bases and do pretty much everything else well (except hit for power), you can safely keep him as a 27-year-old entering his prime.

Yovani Gallardo, SP: He should be fully able to be slotted back into the Brewers starting rotation for 2009, and he will be ready for Spring Training as he is currently ahead of schedule in recovering from his ACL reconstruction. He has top-of-the-line stuff, and if you are the type of manager who likes high-upside youth, there aren’t many better options out there.