By Dan in Los Angeles

League 19

I’ve always been a big fan of numbers, so here’s a depressing one: 198. That’s how many at-bats Victor Martinez had this season before landing on the disabled list with an elbow injury in mid-June. That’s also how many at-bats Martinez had to begin the 2008 baseball season without a home run.

If you were one of the unfortunate souls who drafted Victor Martinez, and managed to resist trading him for magic beans during his homer-less one-third season in 2008, then almost nothing I can say here will really console you.  Here’s a guy who was coming off of his best season yet: 25 homers and 114 RBIs with a .301 batting average in 2007. It’s not like it is impossible to find another Major Leaguer who can put up those kind of numbers, but at catcher … it basically is.

Brian McCann, Giovanni Soto, Victor Martinez - thus completes the list of catchers who I expect to top the 20 home run mark in 2009.  Sure, there’s still Ryan Doumit, Kelly Shoppach, Chris Iannetta (maybe), but until I see it from them I am not going to believe it.  Russell Martin?  An outside chance, sure.  And Jorge Posada? I’m not counting on a full 2009 season from him (and neither should you).  So, we have our list of three power hitters at catcher, but is it down to just two now?

I think we can safely assume that Martinez’s injury was the culprit in his 2008 power outage. I mean, V-Mart’s home run totals each year since his first full season in 2004 are: 23, 20, 16, 25. Sure, that 16 homer season in 2006 left something to be desired, but the .316 average, and 93 RBIs made it all just fine. So, the guy has power … obviously.

The real question becomes whether or not Martinez’s injury and lack of home runs this season is something that will carry over into 2009.  Prior to hitting the DL, he was still hitting a respectable .278, so we may really have to see how he finishes out 2008 to know if his elbow surgery gave him his home run stroke back or not.  The fear, of course, is that he’s become just another catcher-eligible player who can “kind of” hit but doesn’t provide steals or power. Hello, Josh Bard.

The one bright side to Martinez’s injury, if there is one, is the emergence of Kelly Shoppach. If you were fortunate enough to remember Shoppach’s status as a solid power-hitting prospect in the Boston farm system, you might’ve picked him up to fill in while Martinez was on the shelf. Shoppach has never provided more than a mediocre batting average, but he has some pop and has now shown it on the Major League level (don’t buy in completely though, he’s much more Mike Napoli than Mike Piazza).

Shoppach’s emergence, coupled with the decline of 1B/DH disappointments Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko, means that Victor Martinez’s future with the Indians may be at first base and not catcher. This is a scary prospect for sure: V-Mart’s numbers are solid, but, without catcher eligibility, he’s just another pretty good first baseman.

So is Martinez a keeper? Entering what could be his final season of catcher eligibility, the answer has to be a resounding “yes.” Despite the injuries, and Cleveland’s logjam at the catcher, first base, and designated hitter, the possibility of a season of 20-25 homers and 100 RBI from Martinez is just too good to pass up. Production like that out of the catcher spot could make or break your fantasy season. Besides, time at DH and first base will probably mean more at-bats and less risk of injury for V-Mart, so a breakout year could be on the way.

The term “lost season” is a perfect fit for Victor Martinez’s 2008. Cleveland isn’t very good, so the Indians are in no rush to get him into the lineup everyday, so I honestly don’t expect him to put up monster numbers during this last month. The Indians, much like fantasy owners, seem content to just see if Victor can get his swing back for the 2009 season. They want him to be an integral part of their offense, and he could be an integral part of your 2009 fantasy offense as well.

It’s a gamble, sure, but you know that you probably won’t find production anywhere near Victor Martinez’s beyond the first couple of catchers selected, so why not roll the dice and hang on to him? He’ll be coming back with something to prove, certainly, and you definitely want to have him when he does it. If he comes anywhere close to another .300, 25 homer, 100 RBIs season, you’ll be laughing all the way to a championship.