with Chris from Atlanta
League #17
Week #25
The end of the season means that it’s time to take a look at the records that were broken or tied in 2008. What strikes me when I see broken records is that I’m pretty sure that no one projected that player to break that record. It’s just a reminder that projections will always be on the conservative side.
For example, no one projected K-Rod to get 58 saves, and if they did I’m pretty sure I tossed those projections in the garbage. I like to average a few sets of projections together to get a “standardized” baseline for what to expect. Then, I draft players that I feel have the best chance at out-performing those projections. You’re trying to catch lighting in a bottle. It’s all about upside.
K-Rod sets record for saves - If you get 100 saves from your fantasy squad, there is a solid chance that you are getting 8+ points in that category. Most owners need three or more closers to get to that number. With Rodriguez’s 59 saves … and counting, his owners have the luxury of targeting other stats with that roster spot designated for the 3rd closer. This should, in turn, move them up in the standings. I’m guessing that the K-Rod owners that are still paying attention are in the top half of their league standings.
Is he ‘List of Five’? worthy? I say ‘no’. This season, he has his highest WHIP ever and lowest K total ever. And with one more walk, he will tie his highest total in his 7-year career. If you own K-Rod, congrats. You caught lightning in a bottle. I can’t recommend keeping him for the 2009 season, though. In fact, I think it will be hard to protect any pitcher going into next year.
Marlins infield sets HR record - After Friday’s games, there were 45 players with at least 25 homeruns. That averages out to 1.5 per team. Based on this information, we can say that the Florida Marlins infield of Jacobs (32 HR), Ramirez (32), Uggla (31) and Cantu (29) is way above average when it comes to hitting homeruns.
This is the first time in MLB history that one team has had an infield full of 25+ HR hitters in the same season. With one more dinger, Cantu could make it 30 HRs all around.
Marlin infield average = 275/351/521 - 31 HRs - 85 RBIs
While all four players have 29+ HRs, they are all 28-years old or younger. They may be young, but are they ‘List of Five’ worthy? Ramirez is a sure-fire, no-brainer. You’re an idiot if you don’t keep him for 2009. The other three all hit below .279 and have 12 stolen bases combined. I don’t think you can put them on your ‘List of Five’ for 2009, but I would target them in the 6th - 10th round range in next year’s draft.
Vladdy has something to play for this week - With one homerun and a few more hits he will tie Lou Gehrig for the record of most consecutive seasons hitting .300 with 25 homeruns. Gehrig holds the record with 11 consecutive seasons from 1927-1937. “The Luckiest Man on the Face of the Earth” almost did it 12 consecutive seasons. He finished the 1938 season with a .295 average (he did hit 29 HRs though).
Guerrero is currently sitting at 298/360/506 and 24 HRs and battling a knee injury that has kept him out of the lineup since September 12th. That has been Vlad’s story lately. It seems that he is constantly battling some sort of injury. Reason he should be on your ‘List of Five’: the 25 HRs and a 300 average. Reason he should not be on your ‘List of Five’: 32-years old and almost always injured.
You definitely do not want him as your “best” keeper. If he is your 3rd - 5th best keeper, you can make the argument that he deserves to not re-enter your draft. If I had Vladdy (and I don’t), I would explore trading him in the offseason.
Ichiro ties record - His eighth consecutive 200-hit season ties him with Willie Keeler for the Major League record. Keeler did it from 1894-1901. The 34-year old Suzuki has reached 200 hits in each season since coming over from Japan. A lifetime 331/377/431 hitter that gets you 30+ SBs and 100+ runs-scored every year deserves ‘List of Five’ consideration.
The only thing holding him back is his age and the pathetic Mariners lineup. Speed usually fades away with the sands of time. No one has told Ichiro that as this season he has 43 stolen bases; already his third best season (56 in 2001 and 45 in 2006). If I owned Ichiro, I would treat him like Vladdy. You don’t want him as one of your top three keepers; but if he is your 4th or 5th, and you need some speed and average … why not?
Even in “off” year, ARod still breaking records - Since 1998, he has hit a minimum of 35 homeruns and 106 RBIs. That’s 11 straight years with 35 HRs and 100 RBIs. Add his 1996 season of 36 HRs and 123 RBIs and you have a new Major League record of 12 seasons reaching those plateaus. The player ARod passed? The Babe.
Where does ARod’s 2008 season rank against all of his other seasons? If you take his 13 full seasons and roto-score them using the five batting categories, this has been his worst season. But, chances are that he will add to his numbers and will move 2008 up out of last place.
Even if 2008 turns out to be his worst season, you only have to look back to 2007 (his best season in this little experiment) to see why he belongs on your ‘List of Five’. In fact, the numbers suggest that he is on target to have a very good 2009. Over the last six seasons, he has developed an interesting odd/even pattern:
2003,2005,2007 Average: 311/413/618 - 50 HR - 135 RBI - 130 R
2004,2006,2008 Average: 292/386/537 - 35 HR - 109 RBI - 109 R
Who’s Hot
Bronson Arroyo’s last 5 starts:
(5-0) 1.45 ERA - 1.04 WHIP - 1.92 K/BB
Taylor Teagarden since being called up (42 plate appearances):
351/429/946 - 6 HR - 17 RBI - 10 R - 0 SB
Who’s Not
Edinson Volquez’s last 6 starts:
(1-1) 5.59 ERA - 1.49 ERA - 2.14 K/BB
Corey Hart’s last 113 plate appearances:
206/239/346 - 1 HR - 10 RBI - 11 R - 1 SB
Let’s hope your week is more Arroyo/Teagarden and a little less Volquez/Hart! Until next week …