By Bob in Cleveland
League 4
“Hanley Ramirez had arthroscopic surgery Wednesday to repair his injured left shoulder. Ramirez has had to deal with the shoulder popping out of the joint a few times over the past couple of years. This should prevent that from happening in the future.”
Don’t panic, Han-Ram owners! The above statement was actually reported by RotoWorld LAST OCTOBER to describe the rather shaky way that Ramirez finished his tremendous 2007 season. Good thing he had that surgery, though. I mean, surely he’s gotten his health all sorted out now … hasn’t he?
“The Marlins continue to downplay the significance of his sore left shoulder, but it does leave you wondering. He underwent surgery last fall to repair the labrum in this shoulder. Ramirez strained the shoulder diving for a ball … September 17th. While he says he will be back before the end of the season, the Marlins just may shut him down rather than take a chance that he does some serious damage to the shoulder.”
Now, this item, as reported earlier this week by injury-expert Rick Wilton of Baseball-Injury-Report.com, may not be cause for panic in itself, but it is a bit worrisome. After all, Hanley’s off-season surgery was supposed to ” … prevent that from happening in the future.” No? But, when you start thinking that he has a chronic “shoulder popping out of the joint” problem, you have to wonder how safe he is as a high 1st round draft pick.
Hanley Ramirez
What I wrote: “The “3 R’s” are complete! Massive jumps in BB/K rate, making contact, and power. Oddly, regardless of the SBs, he experienced a notable drop in core speed. Off-season shoulder surgery only has me slightly concerned, but it is enough for me to drop him to the bottom of the ‘trinity’.”
What I projected: 625 ABs, .317 BA, 122 Runs, 26 HRs, 73 RBIs, 48 SBs
What he’s done: 572 ABs, .295 BA, 119 Runs, 32 HRs, 66 RBIs, 33 SBs
If last year’s off-season surgery was enough for me to drop Hanley to the bottom of the “trinity”, then I can assure you that this season’s end-of-the-year shoulder woes are clearly enough for me to consider dropping him down my 2009 draft order.
Looking at his numbers, in fact, it looks like the drop he experienced last year in core speed could have come back to haunt him this season by way of his lower SB total. Now, 30+ SBs is certainly nothing to ‘sneeze at’, but will it become a new norm for him? It, for sure, was my worst prediction of his performance.
Other than SBs, however, the other call in which I was way off-base was his BA. Hanley had shown significant BB/K and contact rate growth in 2007. It stood to reason that 2008 would be another strong year for his BA … it wouldn’t likely go higher than 2007’s .332, but he should have been able to “hold ground”. He hasn’t as he’s fallen below .300.
In 2008, he gave back all of his gains in making contact. On the other hand, his BB/K rate has dramatically surged upward yet again. On top of that, his walk rate, which has ranged in the 6% to 8% range for his career, is at an all time high (14%). What does this tell us? Expect a BA rebound in 2009.
Most of us will take the position that Ramirez should be slotted above Reyes in our 2009 overall player rankings based solely on his ability to generate much more power. The question, however, is how much does Hanley’s promise of loads of HRs - he doesn’t bring much more to the table than Reyes, as far as RBIs are concerned, by the way - help you if he’s on the DL with major shoulder injury?
Yes, we faced these same questions coming into 2008, but the fact is, on talent and production alone, Hanley is probably Jose’s superior. On risk, though, I’m feeling like Reyes is the safer bet. Come 2009, Hanley may have surpassed Jimmy Rollins on my shortstop draft board, but he still takes a back seat to Reyes.